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Here's How San Francisco is Bracing for Sea Level Rise Estimated to Impact $48 Billion in Assets

Bordered by water on three sides, the City by the Bay will begin incorporating climate change projections in plans for future infrastructure projects.
Image via Flickr

San Francisco's Capital Planning Committee (CPC) has adopted what is being called the most comprehensive guidelines in the nation for preparing for the impacts of sea level rise on a city's infrastructure.

"This is the first time that I've seen a city really actively assessing the risks to new public investments," Jessica Grannis of Georgetown's Climate Center told VICE News.

The guidelines assume sea level rise of 11 inches, plus or minus 4 inches, by 2050 and as much as 66 inches by 2100.

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San Francisco's Pacific coastline, the Embarcadero, a roadway and pedestrian promenade along the city's eastern and northern coastline, the Port of San Francisco, and the San Francisco International Airport already experience periodic flooding.

'What the ultimate costs are depends on what our policy makers decide to do.'

With roughly seven million people living in the San Francisco Bay Area, the potential for displacement and damage to business and ecosystems is enormous. The Pacific Institute, a think-tank focusing on sustainable development, estimates $48 billion of assets could be impacted in San Francisco alone.

But, added the Institute's Peter Gleick, the uncertainties of climate change and politics makes putting a price tag on likely impacts difficult.

"It's hard to determine the exact economic impact because we don't know what the actual sea level rise will be, how quick it will be, and what actions will be taken in advance of an extreme event that occurs," he told VICE News.

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The report also warns of contamination from sewage or toxic materials from wastewater treatment plants during urban flooding caused by a range of events such as particularly high tides and heavy rainfall.

Under the guidance, which was adopted by the CPC in September, each city department is required to assess the impact of sea-level rise when improvements to existing infrastructure are being considered and when developing new capital projects, such as a police station, visitor center, or a shoreline park.

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It requires the departments to estimate the amount of sea-level rise for the proposed location, the potential impact of storm surges, and the likelihood of flooding.

The plan follows up on a 2008 ordinance passed by the city, which mandates each city department meet greenhouse gas reduction targets — 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2017 and 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.

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"Over the next 10 years we expect that we are going to be investing $25 billion in public infrastructure in San Francisco," Brian Strong, Director of San Francisco's Capital Planning Program, told VICE News.

"We have a proposal for a major sea-level wall in San Francisco, which could cost close to $10 billion," he added.

Strong says the city has a range of resources to fund future infrastructure projects, such as general obligation bonds, which requires approval from two-thirds of registered voters, tax increases, and business assessment districts.

With that amount of resources at its disposal, San Francisco could become a model for how cities adapt to climate change. But the final cost and specific strategies for how to make the city more resilient are far from certain, Gleick told VICE News.

"What the ultimate costs are depends on what our policy makers decide to do," Gleick said.

Follow Zoe Sullivan on Twitter: @zoesullnews

Image via Flickr