First Round Presidential Election Shows Argentines Want Change

The weekend's presidential elections to pick the successor of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Argentina have been described as a political earthquake by analysts, though its magnitude will only become clear after a second round runoff on November 22.

Sunday's poll saw the government-backed candidate and governor of the province of Buenos Aires, Daniel Scioli, only scrape the top spot with 36.4 percent. This was only two points above opposition leader and mayor of the city of Buenos Aires, Mauricio Macri — the real victor of the night.

Scioli, who had been expected to win by around ten points, is the candidate who most closely represents Argentina's historic and multi-faceted Peronist movement with its entrenched belief in state intervention and apparatus-based politics, as well as a toned-down continuation of the outgoing government.

Macri is more closely identified by free market policies, and the Argentine stock market rose 4.5 percent on Monday. But, analysts say, the mayor's popularity today has more to do with his explicit opposition to the political style known as Kirchnerismo that is associated with both Férnandez and her late husband and predecessor Néstor Kirchner.

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"A lot of people wanted a change, and Scioli obviously lost that air of being part of the transition towards a more moderate Peronism," Mariel Fornoni, director of public consulting agency Management & Fit, told VICE News. "Macri won by showing a different side."

Scioli, of the Front for Victory party, must now decide how far to try and distance himself from Fernández — within his motto "continuity with change" — in an effort to win over independents. He is also expected to seek to brand his opponent a heartless representative of the markets who is looking to end positive state intervention in the economy.

"I call for the undecided and the independent to take part of this agenda for Argentina's greatest development," Scioli said, kicking off his campaign for the runoff with the results of the first round still coming in.

The fellow members of Scioli's party listened to his speech with long faces, while Macri's team members beamed while he celebrated the results with tropical music and white and blue balloons.

"What happened today is changing this country's politics," said the candidate of the Let's Change Alliance who also appeared surprised by the result. "I'm going to show all of those who voted for me without being sure that they can trust me."

Macri is now expected to emphasize pledges to maintain social welfare programs associated with Kircherismo.

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Political analyst Sergio Berensztein said Macri's possibilities in the second round depend on whether he can overcome the entrenched idea that only Peronism can guarante stability and governance. Peronism — begun by Juan Domingo Perón in 1945 — has been a dominant force in Argentina's political life, ensuring nine victories in presidential elections including those of the Kirchners.

"A new campaign has begun," Berensztein told VICE News. "Macri has to prove he is capable of governing the country, because a lot of people believe only Peronism can control this country."

He can draw hope from the night's other major surprise in which Peronism lost its grip over the government of the province of Buenos Aires for the first time in 28 years. This is not only Scioli's home ground but is also home to 37 percent of registered voters. Maria Eugenia Vidal, member of Macri's alliance, defeated the Front for Victory's candidate, Aníbal Fernández, by five points.

Ricardo Rouvier, of Rouvier and Associates, told VICE News it would be premature to predict the beginning of the end of Peronism even though it has been traditionally strongest in the provinces.

"It is not about to go away or enter into a final phase of decline," he said, pointing to the political movement's proven ability to reinvent itself with the times. "A new challenge lies ahead, they will regroup and attempt to win the runoff with Scioli."

Besides winning Buenos Aires province, the opposition also won most seats in Congress. This means that even if Scioli does win the runoff, he will have to negotiate with the opposition in the legislature.

With four weeks before the new elections, the winner may be decided by the sympathies of those who voted by third placed Sergio Massa who got a substantial 21.3 percent of the vote on Sunday.

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Follow Gaston Cavanagh on Twitter: @gastoncavanagh