Here's What the Pope Is Probably Going to Say About Climate Change

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Just days before Pope Francis was to enlist people around the globe in the fight against climate change, an Italian magazine leaked a draft of his speech.

In the encyclical, the most authoritative document that a pope can issue, Francis calls for a new global political authority that can be tasked with "tackling … the reduction of pollution and the development of poor countries and regions," according to a translation published by the Guardian. The draft also reveals that the pope will recognize that human activities account for the majority of global warming.

"It is a message of hope and a call for action," Patrick Carolan, Executive Director at the Franciscan Action Network (FAN), told VICE News. "It is a beautiful document and it talks about the beauty and wonder of God's creation and how we are all connected."

Vatican officials called the leak by Italy's L'Espresso magazine an act of "sabotage against the pope" and a "heinous act." The Vatican, however, told journalists that the leaked draft did not represent the final text. But experts and activists do not expect the crux of the message to change between today and Thursday, even if a few words and phrases are altered.

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The leak upended the Vatican's plan for making a big splash on Thursday, when the encyclical would have been formally released to bishops around the world.

The planned speech foreshadows the pope's upcoming visit to the United States in September, when he is scheduled to address the annual UN General Assembly of world leaders and a joint session of the US Congress.

The pope's message might play a significant role in shaping public opinion around climate change in the United States, where it's still denied by many conservatives. According to research by the Yale Project for Climate Change Communication, just about half of the American population — 52 percent — are worried about climate change, while the rest responded that they were "not worried." American Catholics, however, tend to skew to the side of supporting the consensus scientific view on climate change. YPCCC's data shows nearly seven in ten Catholics in the United States agree that global warming is happening, compared to 63 percent of all Americans.

While many of those who say they're not worried about climate change might be beyond persuasion, Carolan thinks the pope could win over those who haven't followed the issue very closely or who haven't yet become active around it.

"There are lots of people who are not denying [climate change], but they haven't really taken action and don't really know what to do," he told VICE News. "I am hoping that this is such a hopeful message that these people also will start to take action and realize that together we can bring change."

Related: Rick Santorum thinks the pope is better off sticking to theology than talking about climate science

According to a poll conducted by GfK, Pope Francis ranks first as a trustworthy speaker on the issue of climate change among Catholic millennials. Ninety percent of Catholic millennials said they were at least somewhat certain that climate change was happening compared to 62 percent of all millennials, defined as those between the ages of eighteen and thirty-four. Eighty-three percent of Catholic millennials felt that human activity is causing it versus 58 percent of all millennials.

International diplomats will meet in Paris at the end of the year to strike an international climate deal aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions in order to keep global average temperature rise within 2 degree Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

While the draft of the papal encyclical is less of a scientific explanation and more of the pope's ideas on the moral duties of humanity as custodians of the Earth, it does come down strongly on climate change deniers. "The attitudes that stand in the way of a solution, even among believers, range from negation of the problem, to indifference, to convenient resignation or blind faith in technical solutions," the leaked draft reads.

Catholics in the Republican Party, including presidential hopefuls Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Rick Santorum, have faced increasing scrutiny of their positions on climate change since the pope began planning for his encyclical.

"My hope is that [the Pope's message] will change everyone's hearts," Dan Misleh, executive director at Catholic Climate Covenant, told VICE News. "As developed countries, we have to realize that we are all part of the problem, but we also can be a part of the solution."

Related: Here's the good news and the bad news about progress on climate change

Follow Esha Dey on Twitter: @deyesha