Iran Is Now a Part of the Conversation to End The Syrian Civil War — But Don't Hold Your Breath

As the Syrian civil war enters its fifth year, negotiators are now descending on Vienna to seek a resolution to the crisis. Though world powers have met regularly over the course of the conflict — always failing to advance any serious peace proposals —these talks will be different: For the first time Iran will be in the room.

"Those who tried to resolve the Syrian crisis have come to the conclusion that without Iran being present, there is no way to reach a reasonable solution to the crisis," said Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, after touching down in Vienna on Thursday evening.

Though Iran is a major player in the civil war — supplying troops and weapons to Bashar al-Assad's regime — it has been continually barred from negotiations. Just two years ago, Iran was unceremoniously disinvited from international talks by the Saudi Arabians and the US, even after the United Nations pushed hard for its inclusion.

Saudi Arabia and Iran are engaged in a series of proxy wars throughout the Middle East, and the Saudis have done their best to isolate Iran from the international community. But the US dropped its objections to Iran's participation in the Syria talks after Iran and the US and other world powers reached a landmark nuclear deal over the summer.

Saudi Arabia didn't appear enthusiastic about the move, but Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir told reporters in London on Wednesday that his government was convinced by its allies to let Iran attend as a "test."

"If they're serious we will know, and if they're not serious we will also know and stop wasting time with them," he said.

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Though it's not yet clear if if the Saudis and Iranians will actually sit in the same room at the conference, Iran's attendance is seen by many as a Saudi capitulation.

"They feel backed into a corner, and in a sense betrayed," said F. Gregory Gause, III, a Persian Gulf expert and President of the International Affairs Department at the Bush School of Government . "But they don't have much of a capacity to change their environment."

Gause describes the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia as a "Cold War," with proxy battles raging in both Syria and Yemen. But the completion of the Iran nuclear deal, and the decision by Russia to enter the war on the side of Assad and Iran earlier this month, seems to have altered the calculus for the US and its European allies, making room for Iran in the talks.

Still, few hold out hope the diplomatic sit-down will produce any immediate results. Until now, all sides have dug their heels into long held positions: the US and its allies saying Assad must go, Russia and Iran insisting he must say. All involved say taking on the Islamic State (IS) is a priority, but the US is resisting any coordination with Russia, Iran, or Assad.

"I can't imagine there will be any big announcements coming out of these talks," said Gause.

Ahead of the talks, Iran did signal some flexibility. "Iran does not insist on keeping Assad in power forever," Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian, a member of Tehran's delegation at the Syria talks on Friday, was quoted by Iranian media as saying.

Reuters also cited a senior official from the Middle East familiar with the Iranian position who said the country was perhaps willing to withdraw its support for Assad after a six month transition period. "Talks are all about compromises and Iran is ready to make a compromise by accepting Assad remaining for six months," the official told Reuters. "Of course, it will be up to the Syrian people to decide about the country's fate."

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US Secretary of State John Kerry already met with the Russian, Saudi and Turkish foreign ministers in Vienna last week, and announced afterwards that they had "broken some new ground." Though all involved could agree that a "political solution" was required, and that IS must be stopped, it's unclear if any real progress towards those goals was made.

Meanwhile, in Syria, the geopolitical state-of-play is nearly impossible to track: Assad, Iran, and Russia are fighting a war against IS, secular Syrian rebels, and al Qaeda. Meanwhile, the US is facing off against IS and al Qaeda, while funneling support to some secular rebels who are fighting Assad. Meanwhile, US allies Saudi Arabia and Turkey back Islamist rebels that oppose both Assad, and IS, but often work in concert with al-Qaeda.

Notably, the upcoming conference in Vienna will not include two of the major belligerents: IS and al Qaeda.

"Most of the people at the conference aren't even fighting in the war," said Kenneth Pollack, a former CIA intelligence analyst and a fellow at the Brookings Institute. Pollack says that it's unlikely that peace can be reached until there are signifiant military shifts on the ground.

"For now, this is a way for the Americans to keep the media and its domestic critics occupied," he said. "They can say — look: we brought the Russians and Iranians to talk, maybe there will be a breakthrough?"

As the war grinds on, the human toll is staggering: nearly 250,000 killed, and over 9 million displaced. The vast majority of those killed have been victims of the Assad regime, but as IS has gained strength, the priority of the international community has become to destroy the radical group.

"Ultimately, to defeat [IS], we have to end the war in Syria," Kerry said in a speech on Wednesday at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace . "And that is America's goal."

Follow Avi Asher-Schapiro on Twitter: @AASchapiro

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