Israel and Russia Meet to Keep from Firing at Each Other in Syria

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that he had reached a tentative agreement with Russia aimed at warding off possible military encounters in Syria, as both countries consider further involvement in the country.

Speaking to Israeli reportersgathered in Moscow, Netanyahu said that he had come to the Russian capital to "prevent misunderstandings between IDF [Israel Defense Forces] units and Russian forces" in Syria. Uncharacteristically for conferences of this sort, and underscoring its seriousness, Netanyahu was accompanied by military staff that included IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Gady Eisenkot and Military Intelligence Chief Maj. Gen. Hertzi Halevy.

Emerging after his meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Netanyahu said that they had "agreed on a mechanism to prevent such misunderstandings."

Israel is believed to have launched a number of airstrikes within Syria since the start of its civil war, targeting what are believed to be arms transfers to Hezbollah fighters. The Lebanese militia, which has helped to prop up the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has fought several conflicts with Israel in the past. Israel does not publicly acknowledge such airstrikes, however, or others that it launched prior to the war, including one that reportedly destroyed a nascent Syrian nuclear site.

Meanwhile, Russia has forcefully and visibly increased its military presence in Syria over recent weeks, sending tanks, personnel, and aircraft to bases near the Mediterranean coast. On Monday, an anonymous American official told AFP that the Russians had sent as many as 28 fighter and bomber aircraft to the port city of Latakia. Another official said that Russia is operating drones within the country, which was suggested by photos that emerged earlier this month.

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Despite Russia's increasingly visible presence in western Syria, it remains unclear to what extent its forces and planes are currently being deployed or will be in the future. Moscow's decision to boost its military investment in Syria has been seen as an assertive foray into the Middle East as well as an indication of the weakening hand of Assad's forces. It has also led some observers to speculate that the Russian government is trying to position itself as a broker with Western powers in the region. Analysts will be closely watching Putin's speech before the United Nations General Assembly next Monday for an indication of how Russia will proceed.

If Russian bombers and jets take to the skies and attack rebel positions, this could complicate both the efforts of the American-led coalition that is targeting the so-called Islamic State (IS) as well as any Israeli sorties across the border into Syria. Russia's planes are more advanced than those maintained by the Syrian air force, as likely would be any anti-aircraft systems it deploys. Even if Israel's interventions in Syria are few and far between relative to the war's overall violence, any moves against Hezbollah or the regime would put it on the opposite side as Russia.

"Anybody who operates militarily inside Syria now has another factor to consider, and that factor is the Russian military operations — especially if they begin air operations," Daniel Serwer, senior research professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, said. "Israel, which has been used to operating without any difficulty over Syria now, has to worry about the weapons that the Russians might fire on them."

Israel is also concerned that fighting alongside Hezbollah — or at least on the same side — could bring Russia closer to the militant group, which is sponsored by Iran, Assad's other principal backer.

"Our policy is to do everything to stop weapons from being sent to Hezbollah," said Netanyahu at a photo op with Putin.

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While Israel has launched airstrikes on Hezbollah, the United Nations and VICE News have documented that it has also been treating Syrian rebels inside of Israel. Last year, fighting spilled into the demilitarized portion of the Golan Heights, along the Syria-Israel border, forcing UN peacekeepers to retreat from the zone that they had patrolled since 1974. The rest of the Golan Heights was seized by Israel in 1967 and remains under its control.

Netanyahu's trip to Moscow comes after US Secretary of State John Kerry said that American and Russian officials could commence military-to-military conversations "very shortly" in an effort to "define some of the different options that are available to us as we consider next steps in Syria."

The US-led coalition has dropped thousands of bombs on IS targets in both Syria and Iraq but continues to struggle to make a dent in territory held by the group. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his Russian allies term all the rebel groups fighting in Syria as "terrorists," not just IS and Jabhat al Nusra, an al Qaeda's affiliate. On Monday, a shell reportedly hit the Russian Embassy in Damascus, the latest of several incidents targeting the mission.

"They have now established themselves as a target, and I would expect some of the rebel groups, especially the more extremist ones, to try to teach the Russians a lesson," said Serwer.

Follow Samuel Oakford in Twitter: @samueloakford