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Policy Over Personalities: Here's What to Expect from the Third Republican Debate Tonight

The top 10 Republican candidates are taking the stage to debate economic issues tonight at 8pm ET on CNBC.
Photo by Max Whittaker/EPA

Just in case you were worried there might be a momentary lull in the media coverage of the Republican 2016 primary race, you're in luck. The 14 candidates — yes, there are still 14 people running for the Republican nomination — are descending on the Coors Events Center stage at the University of Colorado in Boulder tonight to debate each other for the third, but definitely not last, time.

Here's our rundown of what to expect from the various characters and issues involved in tonight's event. Don't forget to follow the VICE News live blog for minute-to-minute coverage, analysis, and commentary during the debate.

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Once again, there will be a junior debate featuring the candidates least likely to win the Republican nomination — former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, former New York Governor George Pataki, and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham — followed by the main event that kicks off at 8 PM Eastern Time.

With exception of Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, who dropped out in September, the roster for the varsity event is the same as last time. The 10 main participants are reality TV star Donald Trump, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, Florida Senator Marco Rubio, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Ohio Governor John Kasich.

Policy over personalities
The main thing setting this debate apart from the last two will be the actual discussion of an issue. Debate host CNBC has titled the debate, "Your Money, Your Vote" and will be asking the candidates questions about jobs, taxes, and the deficit, as well as something called "your financial freedom."

"This will be all business, literally," said Bill Whelan, a political research fellow at the Hoover Institute. He thinks there is more pressure on CNBC to have a policy-driven debate because at this point voters want to have a clearer idea of the candidates' positions on various issues.

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"Economic issues have not gotten nearly enough attention in the last two debates," said Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster and strategist. "This will be a chance for candidates to really get pushed on their vision for taxes, spending, regulation, the appropriate role of government for tackling things like economic growth and wealth inequality."

Related: Republicans Get Blunt About Marijuana at GOP Debate

One topic of discussion to look out for is the budget deal reached on Monday night by congressional lawmakers that raised the debt limit and narrowly avoided a government shutdown. The agreement was almost universally reviled by the Republican candidates as a concession to President Barack Obama and the Democratic Party.

Stephen Moore, senior economic contributor at the conservative advocacy group FreedomWorks, believes the first question of the debate should determine where all of the candidates stand on the budget deal.

"If any of them come out and say this was a good deal, I think their chances of being president will be completely torpedoed," he said.

If you're tuning in to see drama, don't worry — some very big personalities are occupying the stage. Here is what to expect from some of them.

Donald Trump
For the first time in the race, Trump is entering the debate in second place after slipping behind Ben Carson in national and Iowa polls this week. But don't expect Trump's dip to make him a wallflower in the debate — if anything, it will do the opposite.

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"The core of Trump's poll message is, 'I'm a winner,'" said Anderson. "So I doubt he would for a minute acknowledge any form of weakness or any sense that he's not number one in the polls."

As the last two debates demonstrated, Trump's in his element being the center of attention.

"This is the Donald Trump show," says Whelan.

His position in the spotlight also means he'll still be the prime target of attacks from everyone else. One of his main weaknesses will be his outspoken and controversial support of eminent domain. Conservatives — most recently Marco Rubio — have criticized him for using government assistance under eminent domain to absorb private land and expand his private real estate empire, which will likely come up again tonight. Trump's anti-free trade rhetoric and his enthusiasm for corporate bankruptcy (his businesses have filed for Chapter 11 protection four times) are also weak spots that his fellow candidates could target.

Unlike other candidates on the stage however, business and economics are still solid territory for Trump. He'll point to his private sector experience and tax plan, which would lower individual income taxes and corporate income tax, to counter most of the economic attacks that come his way.

Jeb Bush
Tonight is a make or break night for Bush, whose campaign last Friday began slashing salaries and scaling back operations due to flagging support.

"He's coming into Boulder in about the worst shape of his campaign," said Whelan.

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Bush has had rough time of it recently, as he has dealt with low poll numbers and worried donors as well as blowback from awkward comments he made about Supergirl and the female actor playing her. The frustration of being back of the pack was apparent when a grumpy Jeb vented at an event last weekend.

"I've got a lot of really cool things I could do other than sit around, being miserable, listening to other people demonize me and me feeling compelled to demonize them," he said. "That is a joke. Elect Trump if you want that."

A good debate performance tonight is essential if Bush wants to stick around for the Iowa caucuses in three months.

Related: One of the 'Cool Things' Jeb Bush Did Before Running for President Was Get Filthy Rich

Bush has perhaps the best grasp of policy over anyone else on the stage, so his real challenge will be style, not substance. Anderson said that Bush needs to effectively translate his policy ideas to voters in a way that doesn't make them feel as though they are being lectured.

"It's just a fact that 'Four Percent GDP Growth' doesn't look as fun on a hat as 'Make America Great Again'," she noted. If the moderators steer the debate to substance and not theater, she thinks Bush has a chance to shine.

After all, Bush entered the race as the Republican establishment frontrunner. His campaign and the super PACs helping to underwrite it have raised more than $125 million so far, more than anyone else in the race. But his campaign needs a steady lifeline of direct contributions to pay for its actual operations.

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Bush's poll numbers stand at a disappointing national average of seven percent. If he can't shake his dull image from the last two debates, Moore expects donors and voters to turn elsewhere for an establishment candidate to counter the likes of Trump and Carson, with Bush's fellow Floridian and former protégé Rubio being the most likely option.

"The stakes are higher for Jeb than for any other candidate by far," Moore said.

Ben Carson
Tonight will determine whether the former neurosurgeon can hold onto his newfound lead in the race or if he'll crumble under the barrage of attacks that are sure to come from Trump.

"You'll see him going harder and harder after Ben Carson because he now views him as a threat," Anderson predicted.

Debates have not exactly been the soft-spoken Carson's strongest suit — his demeanor in the last two debates was borderline narcotic. Trump is already getting in his jabs, recently attacking Carson's Seventh Day Adventist faith and mocking him for "sleeping" in past debates.

"Ben Carson is super low energy, right?" the defiantly high-energy Trump crowed. "He's super low."

Related: As Campaign Cash Flows to Ben Carson, Jeb Bush Cuts Staff Pay and Operations

Adding to Carson's high stakes is that fiscal policy is not his comfort zone. Expect to see moderators highlight his "tithing" tax scheme, in which everyone pays 10 percent of their income.

"Carson is not known as an economic wizard," said Moore. He'll need to show that he has the economic knowledge to stand up to candidates better-versed in the subject, like Bush and Kasich, who is fond of boasting that he helped balance the federal budget when he served as chairman of the House Budget Committee.

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Marco Rubio
In light of Bush's recent nosedive, the Republican establishment has now turned toward the Florida senator as their next best shot of getting an insider nominee — and one who was originally elected to office with Tea Party credentials, to boot.

"To the extent that opportunity knocks, this is opportunity for Rubio," said Whelan.

But all the hype surrounding Rubio has yet to be reflected in his poll numbers, which are still trailing significantly behind Trump and Carson's. Rubio has not been able to peel the big-name donors or endorsements away from Bush, which are essential if he is to become the next frontrunner. But this could all change if Rubio has a good debate performance and shows "real, tangible proof that he's on the up-swing," Whelan said.

The rest of the gang?
Polling in about fifth place is junior Texas Senator Ted Cruz, who is lstill trying to pick up some of the votes from the outsider frontrunners. Moore expects Cruz to go hard against the budget deal, which he has loudly criticized from the start. He'll almost certainly use his stance as a told-you-so moment in the debate.

Then there is Carly Fiorina, who most of the country only found out existed after her highly praised performance in the second debate. But her poll numbers have dropped back down after a momentary surge, and she'll need to outdo herself in this round if she wants to remain relevant.

Related: How Carly Fiorina's Candidacy Is Helping the Republican Party Even If She Doesn't Win

Standing on the farthest corners of the debate stage will be Kasich, Christie, Paul, and Huckabee, who just barely made CNBC's average poll number requirement of 2.5 percent to join the varsity debate, and have done little to raise their profile in the crowded race. If they remain in their current position, there is a good chance we'll finally see this crowded debate field begin to thin out.

The general election is still more than a year away — and there are eight more Republican primary debates to go!

Follow Olivia Becker on Twitter: @obecker928

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