Syria Might Still Be Using Chemical Weapons, but That Doesn't Mean US Policy Will Change

Allegations that Syria's government has not being forthcoming about its chemical weapons stockpile and continues to deploy chlorine gas against civilians mounted this week — but any such transgressions probably won't affect American policy on the country's civil war.

On Wednesday, American officials told the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) that they believe President Bashar al-Assad's regime has regularly deployed chlorine gas in crude "barrel bombs" dropped on civilian areas, with reported cases as recent as September.

"There is compelling evidence that Syria continues to use chemical weapons systematically and repeatedly," US Undersecretary of State Rose Gottemoeller told members of the OPCW meeting at The Hague.

The OPCW used similar language in September after a fact-finding mission in Syria reported it likely that chlorine gas was used in several northern cities, most heavily in August.

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Chlorine gas exposure can lead to burns, vascular abnormalities, and respiratory failure. At high levels it can kill victims in a matter of minutes.

"The descriptions, physical properties, behavior of the gas, and signs and symptoms resulting from exposure, as well as the response of patients to the treatment leads the FFM to conclude with a high degree of confidence that chlorine, either pure or in mixture, is the toxic chemical weapon in question," said the OPCW.

According to Human Rights Watch, the initial explosion of improvised barrel bombs often either disperses or renders the chemical less than lethal. But if not always deadly, the smell of the gas and its symptoms still have the effect of terrifying local populations.

"It causes terror and people to flee," Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told VICE News. "That's part of the objective in some areas, trying to depopulate regions."

Chlorine is considered a "dual-use" chemical under the Chemical Weapons Treaty, which Syria signed in October 2013. It is legal for the government and Syrians to possess unless it is applied in ways not allowed by the treaty — namely in conflict situations.

"There are legitimate civilian purposes for chlorine, such as washing clothes or treating water," Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, told VICE News. "But when it is used as a weapon it's a violation, and is prohibited."

Secretary of State John Kerry remarked on September 21 that the OPCW's findings "strongly points to Syrian regime culpability."

"The Syrians are the only parties that have attack helicopters that are capable of dropping them," Kimball noted. "It's no surprise that the US and other governments are saying it's the Syrian government that are lacing these barrel bombs with chlorine."

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International attention was drawn to Syria's chemical weapons stockpiles in August 2013 after attacks in two Damascus suburbs left at least hundreds dead. The United Nations later found that the banned nerve agent sarin had been used.

While Assad's forces blamed rebels, the US and observers such as Human Rights Watch said the evidence pointed strongly to the Syrian government as the attack's perpetrators.

President Barack Obama had earlier suggested in 2012 that the use of chemical weapons by Syria would prompt action by the United States against Assad.

"We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized," he said. "That would change my calculus. That would change my equation."

With the prospect of American military intervention looming, Syria agreed in September 2013 to a US-Russia brokered deal whereby Damascus would hand over its entire chemical weapons stockpile. This past June, the OPCW announced the removal of Syria's chemical weapons was complete.

The Syrian government has not, however, destroyed a dozen chemical weapons production facilities — something US officials pointed to Wednesday.

Bob Mikulak, American representative to the OPCW said that it was "disappointing that the destruction of the 12 chemical weapons production facilities originally declared by Syria is limping along and is now significantly behind schedule."

In July, Syria admitted it had four additional chemical weapons plants that it had not disclosed to UN or OPCW officials. The American government believes there could be additional stockpiles that have not yet been accounted for.

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The UN also complained this week that Syria had failed to share sufficient documentation of their program with inspectors.

"There are definitely continued concerns over the fullness and accuracy of Syria's chemical weapons declaration from last year," said Kimball.

In an interview published by Paris Match magazine this week, Assad scoffed at claims his government had used chlorine gas.

"You can find chlorine in any house in Syria," said Assad. "Everyone has chlorine, and any group can use it. But we haven't used it because we have traditional weapons which are more effective than chlorine."

He added that it was impossible for the government to have been responsible for the August 2013 attacks because, if they had, the death toll would have been higher.

"We haven't used this kind of weapons; and had we used it anywhere, tens, if not hundreds of thousands of people would have died," said Assad. "It's impossible for these weapons to kill, as it was claimed last year, only 100 people or 200 people."

A State Department official speaking on condition of anonymity told VICE News that "we aren't going to engage in a back-and-forth with a ruthless dictator who bears overwhelming responsibility for a conflict that has killed more than 200,000 people, ruined a country, displaced nearly 10 million people within Syria and beyond its borders, destabilized a region, and fostered the growth of violent extremists like ISIL" — an alternative name for the Islamic State terror group, also known as ISIS.

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In his interview, Assad pointed out that the Islamic State was a product of the American occupation of Iraq.

"The truth is that ISIS was created in Iraq in 2006," he remarked. "It was the United States which occupied Iraq, not Syria. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi was in American prisons, not in Syrian prisons. So, who created ISIS, Syria or the United States?"

But there's no indication that American policy regarding Syria will be altered if it emerges that Assad's government has hidden additional weapons.

Only a year and a half after President Barack Obama appeared poised to strike the Syrian government, the US is in the middle of a bombing campaign targeting Assad's principal opponents: the Islamic State and the al Qaeda-linked militant group Jabhat al-Nusra.

The strikes in Syria amount to an informal understanding between the US and Syrian governments — Syria's anti-aircraft defenses seemingly don't apply to American aircraft. The strikes on the Islamic State are helping Assad and angering allies such as Turkey, but the US government maintains that it can fight the war on both fronts despite the apparent contradiction.

"Assad presents this conflict as a choice between his regime and terrorist groups like ISIL — this is a false choice," said the State Department official.

But reports this week that Assad's ally Iran is also attacking Islamic State targets in Iraq only cemented the impression that dominoes being pushed by the US-led coalition are falling for the Syrian government.

"I think it's self-evident that if Iran is taking on ISIL in some particular place, and it's confined to taking on ISIL and it has an impact, its net effect is positive," Secretary of State Kerry told reporters this week. "But that's not something we're coordinating."

In the absence of a coherent policy to remove Assad, however, the effect of this lack of coordination is clear.

"The US has gone to war against Assad's two largest enemies — ISIS and al Qaeda," said Landis. "If anybody were to defeat Assad it would be those two forces, and America has promised to destroy them."

Follow Samuel Oakford on Twitter: @samueloakford