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Why Seven Just Became a Lucky Number for Syrian Rebels

Rebel forces recently seized two government bases in the country's northwest — an area that is strategically important for a number of reasons.
Photo by Jeff Kubina

Groups fighting against the Syrian government seized two government bases at Wadi Deif and Hamidiyeh, near the town of Maarat al-Numan in the country's northwest. It's an important development — at least if the news reports that have described the bases as "key," "critical," and "strategic" are to be believed. The thing is, there hasn't been much explanation about why the bases are important.

Maarat al-Numan sits on the M-5 highway, a four-lane divided highway that links the capital of Damascus in the south with Aleppo, Syria's largest city, on the way north into Turkey. Before the war erupted, Aleppo had a population of roughly 2.1 million (a figure that has likely declined significantly as residents have fled the chaotic fighting), about half as many people as Damascus. All told, Aleppo (and the surrounding province) account (or accounted) for about 20 percent of the entire Syrian population. As such, it is a major prize for whichever side can take and hold the city and its surrounding countryside.

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The thing about Syria is that the population and wealth aren't evenly distributed. Most of the interior — especially in the center and southeast of the country — is very sparse, arid terrain. There's just not a lot there.

The more habitable, prosperous, and valuable part of the country is shaped like a backward number seven. The vertical portion of this swath sits on the Mediterranean Sea, abutting some modest mountains and hills. This region of the country is comparatively nice and prosperous. The area that makes up the horizontal part of the backward seven borders Turkey, and it too is relatively hospitable and fertile.

The city of Aleppo more or less sits at the intersection of the area that borders Turkey and the area that runs along the Mediterranean. Beyond the inherent value of providing (or blocking) access to Aleppo, the M-5 highway connects pretty much everything in northern Syria with the rest of the country.

In much of the world, the basic solution to a blocked highway is to swear and then find an alternate route. But if rebel forces control Maarat al-Numan and neighboring bases, there are few options for alternative routes. Going to the east, through the desert and its very few roads, is a rough haul. The area is long on desolation and short on truck stops.

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Scooting west and heading north (running parallel to the mountains that separate coastal Syria from the rest of the country) isn't a great option either. Those roads go through other towns — namely Jisr al-Shughur and Idlib — that have been contested by rebel forces for quite some time.

In other words, seizing and holding Maarat al-Numan really does give the rebels the ability to choke off government forces in the north, particularly given the slow, grinding, attrition warfare that has characterized this conflict. The capture of Maarat al-Numan by rebels means that the Syrian regime is going to have a hard time holding on to anything in northern Syria — at least for the time being.

Syrian government forces and various rebel factions have been fighting tooth and nail for this town for the two and half years. So we can probably expect to see regime forces get pretty serious about trying to regain control of the town and nearby bases shortly.

Follow Ryan Faith on Twitter: @operation_ryan

Photo via Flickr