‘Clear Signal’ Sent That Israel-Hamas War Could Escalate Regionally

QIRYAT SHEMONA, Israel – Iranian proxies throughout the Middle East conducted a series of attacks on US forces and Israel Thursday night in what regional and western intelligence officials fear is a broad escalation of the ongoing confrontation between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip that has killed thousands.

Iran’s Lebanese proxy, and close Hamas ally, Hezbollah has conducted near daily small scale attacks on Israel’s northern border that have been seen by Israeli officials as an attempt to pressure and stress test Israeli reactions along the heavily militarised northern border. Hezbollah’s huge arsenal of missiles and rockets dwarfs Hamas capabilities and its battle-hardened fighters have deep experience fighting both Israel and Syrian rebels over decades, making it by far the most feared non-state actor in the region.

On Thursday, the conflict appeared to expand beyond Israel’s adjacent borders, as fighters from Yemen’s Houthi movement and Iraqi militias – both loyal to Iran – conducted a series of attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria and might have even tried to attack Israel, according to US and regional intelligence officials.

A US warship in the northern Red Sea shot down several missiles and drones fired from Yemen Thursday night that US and European officials suspect were directed at Israel, which if true would represent the broadest expansion yet of the conflict.

“We cannot say for certain what these missiles and drones were targeting, but they were launched from Yemen heading north along the Red Sea, potentially towards targets in Israel,” Pentagon spokesman Brigadier General Patrick Ryder told reporters.

A regional intelligence official speaking on the condition of anonymity told VICE News that the Houthi militia in Yemen, a longtime ally of both Iran and Hamas, had used some of its extremely long range missiles to target the southern Israeli port of Eilat but were intercepted by the US warship patrolling in the area.

Also on Thursday, the US military in Iraq and Syria reported a series of small drone attacks on US bases at al Assad, Iraq, Erbil, Kurdistan, and Tanif, Syria that were likely the work of Iraqi militant groups working with Iran. One civilian contractor reportedly died of a heart attack but all of the drones were intercepted and there was no damage to US forces or facilities.

“Both the Houthis and the militias in Iraq have announced their presence in this conflict,” said the regional official. “Iran has developed, armed and trained these regional proxies for years and appear to be sending a clear signal that a regional escalation beyond Hamas and Hezbollah that could easily drag the United States into the conflict is on the table.”

Yemen’s Houthi movement, which has controlled large swaths of the country for over a decade, has long focused on developing a long-range missile and drone programme with Iran’s help. The group has conducted a number of successful or near successful operations on distant targets in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as an isolated, failed, attack on a US warship in 2016, but an apparent attempt to hit Israel shows both a capability and willingness by the Houthis to join the conflict as Israel prepares what’s widely expected to be an extensive ground campaign against Hamas and other militants based in Gaza, which has been pummelled by Israeli air strikes and artillery since Hamas fighters conducted the deadliest attack against Israel in the country’s history on October 7. 

More than 1,400 people were killed when gunmen broke out of Gaza and attacked kibbutzim, towns, a music festival and military targets. In response Israel launched an aerial bombardment of Gaza, killing more than 3,700 people. A “total siege” imposed on Gaza has pushed the humanitarian situation in the densely populated coastal strip to an absolute breaking point, the United Nations and aid agencies have warned.

Along the northern border with Lebanon, on Thursday militants unleashed the largest bombardment since October 7, firing dozens of rockets into the partially evacuated Golan Heights and Israeli towns and villages along the border. Three Israeli injuries were reported and the Lebanese Armed Forces said at least one person was killed and as many as seven other civilians were wounded by Israel artillery and machine gun fire that responded to the rocket barrage, which was claimed by a Lebanon-based offshoot of Hamas. However the regional security official said that Hezbollah’s involvement and permission was obvious.

“Hamas has never had a significant military wing in Lebanon,” they said. “They might have let some Hamas fighter pull the trigger but this is Hezbollah and Iran continuing to pressure and threaten Israel along its northern flank.”

In a visit by VICE News on Wednesday to the northern border, the towns and settlements within 2km of the Lebanese border had been mostly evacuated by military order. The Hamas attack from Gaza on October 7 involved a mass infiltration of fighters into Israel that took the Israeli Defence Forces by complete surprise, but this type of attack has long been a major concern along the northern border. As a result, those Israeli civilians who have yet to evacuate the area have formed armed self defence groups in coordination with the heavy IDF presence.

In a settlement about 4km from the border in plan view of the UN-designated Blue Line that separates Israel and Lebanon, most families have left for safer areas but around 40 people have remained with weapons, medical supplies and a plan to defend their communities in the case of a major Hezbollah incursion. 

“We know it's futile because we are so close to the border and the rockets will smash our town,” said one volunteer, who asked not be named or the community be specifically identified. “But this is our home and land and we will protect it.”

The volunteer’s wife was less certain.

“We are here for now but if it gets much worse, we will be forced to leave,” she said. “We have safe rooms and shelters but the size of the weapons Hezbollah can fire from so close away means we couldn’t survive for long. I think the IDF will ask us to evacuate soon.”

In the nearby town of Qiryat Shemona, which the IDF announced would be evacuated after Thursday's exchange, normally home to about 40,000 Israelis, the streets were mostly deserted except for IDF soldiers and reservists.

In the centre of the town sat two Merkava main battle tanks, hidden in a strip mall parking lot along with a fuel truck and a company of reservist infantry. 

IDF tanks are a common sight in Israel but parking them in population centres is a rare attempt to protect the community from mass infiltration attacks by gunmen like those that devastated the border communities around Gaza on October 7.

“The terrorists won’t be fighting unarmed civilians and police if they attack us here,” said one Israeli civilian. “What happened on October 7 can never happen again. If a regional war is necessary, Israel is ready to fight one.”