Japan Will Lose Almost a Third of Its Population by 2070, Study Suggests

Japan’s population is projected to fall nearly by a third by 2070, a change that’s expected to pose major economic and social challenges to the world’s third-largest economy.

A government study released Wednesday suggests that the country will lose about 37 million of its population by 2070 even after it factored in nearly twice as many immigrants as it previously forecast. 

While the global population is set to continue to rise and possibly peak in 2070 at 9.4 billion, Japan’s 124 million population today is expected to fall by 30 percent to 87 million by the same year, according to the study by the Japanese health ministry. 

As Japan’s birth rate continues a 7-year decline, those aged 65 and older will make up nearly 40 percent of Japanese society by 2070, and children will fall below 10 percent of the population. This is despite the government’s efforts to encourage child-rearing, including by raising child allowance and childcare services.

A shrinking workforce has slowed Japan’s economic growth, and the population decline is already affecting the social fabric of the nation.

As fewer couples have children, many schools—particularly in rural areas—face declining enrollment and are being forced to close or merge with other institutions. As a result, some students have had to move prefectures for education.

This population decline is perhaps best captured by the growing number of abandoned houses across the country. These empty homes, known as akiya, are now up for grabs for as little as $45, and local authorities have come up with subsidies and other sweeteners to attract new residents to revitalize their dwindling communities.

The study projects that foreign residents in Japan—defined as non-Japanese people who stay in the country for at least three months—will make up over 10 percent of the population by 2070, up from about 2.2 percent today. 

In the previous study, released in 2017, the government forecast that about six percent of the population will be non-Japanese residents. The change reflects the Japanese government’s expectation of more immigration to mitigate its depopulation.

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