What to Look Out for in Today's Make-or-Break Budget

Phil Hammond had a narrow escape earlier this week, when aides stopped him taking part in a photo opp in a driverless car. It was supposed to say something about the futuristic robot economy we’re all excited to be part of, but as he limbers up to give his budget speech today, even the thought of the Chancellor sitting in a car with no steering was an early Christmas present to satirists. Nevertheless, Spreadsheet Phil remains asleep at the wheel, bizarrely asking on Sunday’s Andrew Marr Show, "Where are all these unemployed people? There are no unemployed people." Which came as a surprise to Britain’s 1.42 million unemployed people.

Maybe the ability to simply block large numbers of people out of your consciousness comes in handy as Chancellor. Last week the British Medical Journal linked austerity to 120,000 excess deaths, and projected this number to rise to 200,000 by the end of 2020. And that murderous belt-tightening still hasn’t solved the national debt. Borrowing was disconcertingly reported yesterday as having risen last month.

With so much death directly and statistically attributed to the office of Chancellor, we can wonder whether or not it’s surprising that current Environment Secretary Michael Gove wants to take it over. Gove has been lauded recently as a surprising environmentalist, despite eco-warriors' scepticism when he was handed the post. Apparently he’s very passionate about the environment now. He even tweeted about plastic bags after watching that sad dolphin forlornly dragging the rotting foetus of her dead child through the sea on Blue Planet 2. So committed is he to the defence of Mother Earth that he fancies a promotion to something better, and has been using "economiky words" in cabinet meetings in an attempt to audition for Hammond's job.

That’s because while Hammond is generously understood by many as being competent, some Tories think the economic tinkerman doesn’t have what it takes to spell out a broad vision. The knives are out. If today's budget goes down like a sack of shit, it will sink Hammond's career.

Theresa May ruined George Osborne’s illusion that austerity is actually necessary, so it’s no longer enough to take to the dispatch box and show off about how miserly you’re being. What the Tories desperately need is a vision to attempt to assert some kind of control over the national conversation, or at least to appear vaguely relevant. And so, today, we can expect Hammond to attempt to spin some kind of national redemption story.

Mostly, that will be some craven and embarrassing attempts to woo the youth vote – which has deserted the Tories – dressed up as looking forward to a bright tomorrow.

What are the youth worried about? Housing, of course, and not having any. Tackling the housing crisis is supposed to be Theresa May’s key mission as Prime Minister. As such, Hammond is expected to outline some piss weak measures on the issue, which have already been slated by even conservative critics. The main headline is a promise to build 300,000 homes. This will come just a day after it was revealed that not a single house had been built from the 200,000 home "ambition" under David Cameron’s "Starter Homes" policy. The Conservatives also plan to launch an inquiry into speculators hoarding land. Another is to pay to clean up polluted industrial sites for housebuilding. What happens if speculators hoard an ex-industrial estate that the government paid to detox? We'll find out when the report is published in spring, another half a year or so of inertia in the face of a gigantic national crisis later.

In another sop, Hammond will unveil the millennial rail card, giving a third off some rail travel for people aged 26 to 30, so we can all enjoy some more discounted weekends away, which will really take the sting out of having a blighted future.

A blighted future which is, in fact, incredibly bright, we will presumably hear, as demonstrated by the futuristic buzzwords we can look out for. These are likely to include that we must "embrace change" (which might mean a P45), and that Britain will be "leading the next industrial revolution" and become a "factory" for the "high paying jobs of tomorrow".

And remember: according to Hammond, if you can’t get one, you don’t exist.

@SimonChilds13