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It Could Be Some Time Before Spain Has a Government, as Coalition Horse-Trading Gets Underway

An inconclusive general election on Sunday has heralded a new era of political pact-making in Spain, shattering a two-party system that has dominated since the 1970s.
Photo by Luca Piergiovanni/EPA

Spain's major political parties are now embarking on potentially long and arduous talks to form a coalition government, after the most fragmented national election result in the country's history on Sunday.

With neither Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's conservatives nor left-wing parties winning a clear mandate to govern, the country faces weeks of uncertainty.

Despite garnering the most votes, the center-right People's Party (PP) had its worst result ever in a parliamentary election, winning 123 seats, as Spaniards angered by high-level corruption cases and soaring unemployment turned away from the party in droves.

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The opposition Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) won 90 seats, also its worst result ever. Upstart parties, the anti-austerity Podemos and market-friendly party Ciudadanos won 69 seats and 40 seats respectively.

Related: One Shipwrecked Spanish Galleon — Two Countries and One Company After the Gold

The inconclusive vote heralded a new era of pact-making, shattering a two-party system between PP and PSOE that has dominated Spain since the 1970s, with the surge from Podemos — the latest of several strong showings by populist parties in European elections — giving it a potential role as kingmaker.

The likelihood of a PP-led coalition faded with Podemos' third place, outpacing fellow newcomer Ciudadanos whose policies had been seen as a natural fit for the PP. A tie-up between the PP and Ciudadanos would yield 163 seats, far short of the 176 needed for a majority administration.

The leader of Podemos said on Monday he would not allow the PP to form a new government. "So that no doubt remains… Podemos would not either actively or passively permit a PP government," Pablo Iglesias told a news conference. Iglesias also said he would soon begin a round of talks with all other political parties to discuss possible agreements.

'This result confirms Spain has entered an era of political fragmentation'

PSOE said on Monday they it also vote against a new PP government. Cesar Luena, one of most senior PSOE officials, told reporters: "Spain has voted for change. Now it's up to the PP to try and form a government… but the Socialists will vote 'no' to Rajoy and the PP."

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Ciudadanos leader Albert Rivera on Monday urged PSOE to support a minority PP government on a law-by-way basis. "Spain can't allow itself to become Greece. Spain can't become a chaotic country," he told broadcaster Telecinco.

Overall, Podemos' strong showing tipped the balance to the left of the political spectrum with five left-wing parties led by the Socialists and Podemos together winning 172 seats.

Related: Spain's Ruling Conservatives Win Election — But Fall Short of Majority

Such a left-wing alliance will be hard to form, however, as groups differ on economic policy and the degree of autonomy that should be awarded to the wealthy northeastern region Catalonia, home to an entrenched independence movement.

"This result confirms Spain has entered an era of political fragmentation," said Teneo Intelligence analyst Antonio Barroso. "The key question is whether there will be a coalition of parties against Rajoy."

That uncertainty spilled over into financial markets, with Spanish shares lagging their European counterparts and benchmark bond yields rising.

The Spanish constitution does not set a specific deadline to form a government after the election. Analysts say negotiations could go for weeks — and maybe trigger another election.

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