Republicans may have found a playbook for winning under Trump

Virginia gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie is the kind of Republican who has won races in the state for years: boring but safe. But now Donald Trump is in the Oval Office.

Compared to the president’s fantastical far-right policy promises and showy style, Gillespie’s message is decidedly moderate, and it could cost him the governor’s mansion. Republicans across the country up for reelection in 2018 are facing the same challenge: how to excite a base still loyal to Trump without turning off moderates or energizing Democrats.

But if Gillespie can pull off a win against Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam on Nov. 7, Republicans in key races nationwide next year will use his campaign as the playbook.

“No doubt that it is a fine line, a high-wire act that you have to walk — not too far one way, not too far the other way. Watch out for a breeze,” said Gary Byler, a local GOP operative who served as a regional Virginia campaign chairman for Trump and has advised Gillespie and his former primary challenger, Corey Stewart. Trump made campaigning “probably more difficult” than ever, he said.

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Gillespie is the quintessential “swamp creature” that Trump campaigned on eliminating: He’s a lobbyist and former RNC chairman who advised George W. Bush and Mitt Romney. He was also one of the GOP’s most prominent moderates on immigration and encouraged the party to avoid anti-immigrant language and embrace comprehensive immigration reform.

But base turnout is key during an off-year election, when typically only the most motivated voters show up at the polls. That makes energizing hardcore Republicans a major concern for Gillespie. At least in his campaign ads, he’s shifted his stance on immigration significantly in an attempt to appeal to those voters.

The ads feature menacing photos of tattooed gang members and suggest illegal immigration is to blame for acts of violence committed by members of the international gang M13 in Virginia. The ads also erroneously accuse Northam of voting in favor of sanctuary cities — jurisdictions that won’t indefinitely hold arrested undocumented immigrants for federal immigrations agents. Those don’t exist in Virginia.

In public campaign appearances, though — like at a stop at the Virginia Chamber of Commerce last week — Gillespie still touts his family’s immigrant origins, focuses on economic issues, and avoids any mention of Trump, who endorsed Gillespie in a tweet, unless pressed. Instead, more palatable, establishment types have come to Gillespie’s aid — including George W. Bush, who headlined a fundraiser for him, and Vice President Mike Pence, who campaigned for him in Virginia.

Byler knows that Gillespie is “playing politics” by delivering different messages to different audiences and playing on voters’ emotions by tying M13 to immigration issues. But they’re typical moves politicians often make to win, according to him.

“It is a calculated gambit to energize your voters enough to get them energized but hopefully not piss off the other guys to the point where they’re energized,” Byler said.

Early numbers indicate Gillespie’s strategy may be working. He started the race trailing Northam in every poll, but the polls have tightened in recent weeks. Some even show a tied race.

But Stewart — who previously served as Trump’s Virginia campaign chairman before losing by just 5,000 votes to Gillespie in the GOP primary — said conservatives aren’t buying Gillespie’s transformation.

“The ads aren’t enough,” he said. “There’s still a segment of people who are just not there yet because they’re waiting for him to signal that he will be tough when he’s governor.”

Stewart believes a significant portion of his supporters — as much as half of the more than 155,000 people who voted for him — aren’t on board yet. Those votes could make the difference in a close race.

To bring them on board, Stewart said conservatives want to hear Gillespie make three promises directly to voters, rather than rely on his ads: that he’ll crack down on illegal immigration, root out MS13, and protect historical monuments.

“Those three things alone are enough to to send a signal to the base that he’s serious, that he’s going to have their backs once he’s elected governor, and they will turn out for him,” he said.

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Cover image: United States Vice President Mike Pence joins Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie on stage during a party rally Saturday evening at the Washington County Fairgrounds in Abingdon. (AP Photo, Andre Teague/Bristol Herald Courier)