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Looks like Putin’s nemesis will spend election season in jail

Navalny’s already been barred from running in the election following a corruption conviction he calls bogus, but this latest arrest could stop him from leading street protests against Putin during the election season.

Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was detained Thursday on charges of violating public assembly laws, raising the likelihood that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most high-profile domestic critic will be forced to watch the country’s upcoming election from a prison cell.

Navalny was apprehended leaving a dentist appointment and soon released, he tweeted on Thursday. The anti-corruption campaigner, who’s been organizing a boycott of the March poll aimed at undermining Putin’s legitimacy, will now face charges that could send him to prison for 30 days — through the election.

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Navalny’s already been barred from running in the election following a corruption conviction he calls bogus, but this latest arrest could stop him from leading street protests against Putin, as he did during Russia’s last election six years ago.

“They’ve released me until trial,” Navalny tweeted. “No idea when trial will be.”

A short-term sentence looks like a calibrated response by the authorities aimed at keeping Navalny off the streets during the election while not punishing him so harshly that he becomes a martyr to his followers, said Chris Jarmas, a columnist for FPRI Bear Market Brief, a newsletter covering Russian politics and economics.

Thursday’s arrest marks the latest in a long string of setbacks for Navalny, which has included previous stints in jail, a long-term prison sentence for his brother, attempts by authorities to block his website and some of his most potent anti-government YouTube videos, and even a recent raid on his Moscow headquarters.

Although Putin’s electoral victory looks bulletproof, the vote isn’t without drama — or perils for Putin’s regime. Failure to secure a commanding victory and high turnout could signal to the entire country that Putin’s grip is weakening as he enters his third decade in power, Russia-watchers say.

“Turnout is absolutely critical in this game,” said Jarmas. “If Putin can’t produce above 60 percent turnout, that signals to the rest of the elite that something is not quite right.”

Elections that have appeared all-too-obviously fraudulent have been seized upon by anti-government agitators in other countries in the former Soviet space to overthrow regimes in countries like Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan — a precedent that has been closely followed by Russia’s elite, analysts said.

“I think they are worried about that in the Kremlin,” said Olga Oliker, director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They will try to do things to make sure there aren’t protests post-elections.”

Cover image: Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny, centre, attends a rally in Moscow, Russia, Sunday, Jan. 28, 2018. Navalny has been arrested in Moscow while walking with protesters, as protests take place across the country. (AP Photo/Evgeny Feldman)