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Yes, Jeb Bush Screwed Up Last Night — But Don't Count Him Out of the Race Just Yet

Bush still has the most money of any candidate in the election, which will more than likely carry him through to the primaries.
Photo via AP

In case the last couple weeks of Jeb Bush's plunging poll numbers and a series of questionable public comments weren't enough to convince you that his campaign is spiraling down the drain, his debate performance last night pretty much sealed the deal.

Or, maybe not.

Leading up to the debate, many strategists said that Bush was the candidate with the most at stake in order to reassure the Republican establishment that he was still the candidate they had fallen in love with last spring.

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Bush failed to do that. And the political punditry class were quick to say Bush's campaign had entered a "death spiral."

David Frum, former speechwriter to former President George W. Bush, Tweeted that "this was the most important debate to date: it finished off the Bush campaign." Or as Frank Luntz, a prominent Republican pollster bluntly put it, "His Rubio attack failed. His defense of his own record failed. Everything failed." A column at the conservative standard-bearer, The Weekly Standard, read "Jeb's Dead: Adios Amigo" this morning. Matt Drudge took to Twitter to joke that Bush can now free himself of his supposed campaign dietary restrictions now that his campaign is over.

Jeb Bush can eat carbs now… — MATT DRUDGE (@DRUDGE)October 29, 2015

Bush spoke for less than six minutes during the two-hour debate, the least of any candidate on the stage. His most notable moment came when he tried, and failed, to attack Marco Rubio for his low attendance record in the Senate.

"The Senate — what is it, like, a French work week? You get like three days where you have to show up?" Bush said to his former protégé. "You can campaign. Or just resign."

Rubio, clearly ready for the attack, shot back at Bush by saying that the only reason for the jab was because "someone has convinced you that attacking me is going to help you."

Taking on the young senator was pretty much universally seen as a bad move by Bush.

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"Marco is a [expletive] Jedi Master," Politico reported one Florida donor saying last night. "Hopefully these idiots learn not to [expletive] with him anymore. Not necessary."

Ben Domenech, a Republican commentator and strategist agreed that the clash with Rubio, "really couldn't have gone worse for Bush."

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But despite the chorus of media coverage calling Bush's performance a dud, don't expect his campaign to pack their bags and go home quite yet. Bush still has the most money by far of any candidate in the race, with upwards of $125 million and a substantial ground operation still in place. This will likely get him to the February primaries in the key states of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

"I think he's really going to stay in," Domenech added. "I think he feels in the long run, he has the most money, he has the most operational support, he has the crew you need in order to win."

Bush's current status is illustrated in history. When Rudy Giuliani ran for president in 2008, he too, had raised the most money of anyone at this point during the race. Even though his poll numbers began to falter at around October, Giuliani's war chest allowed him to stay in the race until February and participate in the early primaries.

If he stays in the race, Bush's most decisive battle will not be in the debates or even in the first primaries, but in Florida, Domenech says. It's home to both Rubio and Bush, and one of them will almost certainly win the state's Republican primary.

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"As long as Jeb is in a position where he can convince himself he can win Florida then he's got a shot," Domenech added.

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Bush's campaign seems to agree. According to Politico, his campaign manager Danny Diaz told reporters in Boulder last night, "I think we're in for the long haul and we're in to win."

The next Republican debate is in twelve days and the Florida primary does not take place until March. If this election has demonstrated anything so far, it's that anything could happen before then.

Follow Olivia Becker on Twitter: @obecker928