How one Republican’s “alcoholism” could swing control of Congress

If Republicans want to keep a majority in the House of Representatives in this fall’s midterm elections, the party must win in Republican-leaning places like Virginia’s 5th district.

The only problem is that as of Monday, there's no longer a Republican nominee in Virginia’s 5th district.

And now the Republican Party has entered the byzantine world of state rules and local party bylaws to save a seat that was once deemed safe.

The trouble began last week with Republican Congressman Thomas Garrett, a conservative and a member of the House Freedom Caucus. Garrett won his largely rural district that covers a large swath of southern Virginia by 16 points in 2016 and Trump won it by 11 points. There is a competitive, better-funded Democratic opponent this year, but Cook Political Report still labeled the race “Lean Republican.”

Then last week, Garrett’s chief of staff suddenly resigned. Politico reported that the congressman had staff doing his personal errands, which is against House ethics rules, and then Garrett felt forced to deny rumors that he was going to retire in a rambling statement on a Facebook video.

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By Monday, Garrett had decided he wasn’t going to run for re-election after all. In a video address, he said that the reports were “a series of half-truths and whole lies,” and that the real reason he was stepping down was alcoholism. He is now the 48th incumbent Republican to not seek re-election or resign this year, according to the House Press Gallery’s “casualty list.”

Since Garrett was the only Republican in the race and the filing deadline had passed, however, replacing him in this critical district is a bit more complicated. Virginia code 24.2-539 essentially delegates the decision to the state party. So state party officials have been studying Article VII, Section F of their party plan, which ultimately lets a party committee in the district decide. In the 5th district, that means that the decision falls to a group of about three dozen Republican Party activists and local elected officials.

“I’m not aware of another race quite like this: There’s no primary, there’s no convention,” said Martha Boneta, a local activist and businesswoman who is running to become the Republican nominee.

Local Assemblyman Michael Webert, also running for the Republican nomination, agreed: “I’ve never run in a race like this,” he said. “It changes the whole race because it’s just a few dozen people and it needs to happen quickly.”

It’s rare for the decision to fall to the committee backrooms of past eras, but it does occasionally happen when an incumbent unexpectedly drops out. Every state and state party handles such circumstances differently, but a similar series of events occurred in the summer of 2012 when Rep. Steven LaTourette of Ohio suddenly announced his retirement and Republican Party officials from the district's seven counties met and voted for local prosecutor David Joyce to be his replacement.

Besides Webert and Boneta, developer Jim McKelvey and distillery owner Denver Riggleman have jumped into the race. So far, it doesn’t appear that any of the candidates are going publicly negative against one another.

The committee is tentatively scheduled to meet on June 10 and people in the state party expect them to establish rules requiring a simple majority to win. The stakes of their decision are high. Every seat this November matters as Democrats attempt to gain the 24 seats they need to regain the majority and there are approximately 50 races that are considered competitive, including some that are held by vulnerable Democrats.

And Democrats have a chance to win in Virginia’s 5th. The Democratic frontrunner in the June 12 primaries, journalist and author Leslie Cockburn, was already raising more money than Garrett before he dropped out. By the end of March, she'd outraised him $715,038 to $432,330. It is rare for a challenger to outraise an incumbent by so much, and any Republican nominee will have to start over and work furiously to catch up.

Cockburn said in a statement: “It is important that [Garrett] has recognized his addiction and is taking steps to address it. We wish him well.”

Cover image: Rep. Thomas Garrett announcing his alcoholism on YouTube.