Don’t Call Thailand’s Martial Law Declaration a Coup (Yet)

Call it a coup-lite.

Thailand’s military declared martial law in the country early Tuesday morning in what they said was an attempt to contain tensions set off by the judicial ouster of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

A televised speech delivered by the head of Thailand’s army, Gen. Prayuth Chan-Ocha, instructed partisans on both sides of the political crisis to cease protest activities. By evening, 14 politically-oriented television stations had reportedly been taken off the air.

Thailand’s army declared martial law early on Tuesday, May 20, but denied staging a coup d’état.

Gen. Prayuth insisted that the military’s intervention was not a coup, and the army allowed the current caretaker government headed by Niwatthamrong Boonsongpaisan to remain in place. Niwatthamrong has called for August elections, which would probably see his Pheu Thai Party remain in power. The armed forces would likely have to approve any vote, however.

Elections earlier this year were postponed after anti-government protesters blocked polling stations, making voting impossible. Opposition leader Suthep Thaugsuban has called for an appointed prime minister to replace the government.

Thailand’s anti-democratic royalists precipitate political chaos. Read more here.

The Thai army’s move came as little surprise. It has a long history of intervening, and in recent days it had repeatedly suggested that it would step in should confrontations among factions turn violent. Before Tuesday, Thailand had experienced 11 coups and seven attempted coups since it abolished absolute monarchy in 1932.

Following several deaths during clashes last week, leaders of the anti-government “yellow shirt” People's Democratic Reform Committee and the pro-government “red shirt” United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship both announced massive rallies. Neither the PDRC nor the UDD is a political party. They coordinate protesters instead — which over the past decade has proved to be a full-time endeavor.

Footage shows troops taking over the National Broadcasting Services of Thailand TV station in Bangkok.

Martial law was declared during a 2006 coup that ousted Yingluck’s elder brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, and again in 2010 when protests paralyzed the country. Over 80 people were killed that year during confrontations between red shirts and the military.

Even without the ever-looming presence of the army, the cards are stacked against democracy in Thailand. Only half of the Senate is elected and the Constitutional Court, a perennial thorn in the side of the government, is appointed by the country’s King.

Thai court ousts prime minister over abuse of power. Read more here.

“There’s this sense among the army that Western democracy is not good, that it encourages people to fight and disagree,” Thak Chaloemtiarana, a retired professor of Southeast Asian and Thai studies at Cornell University told VICE News.

The current bout of paralysis began in November when Yingluck clumsily tried to pass an amnesty law that would have allowed Thaksin back into the country.

After the country’s Constitutional Court on May 7 found Yingluck guilty of abuse of power in her demotion of the country’s security chief in 2011, anti-government protesters, smelling blood, stepped up their activities in Bangkok, calling for the ouster of the entire cabinet.

Under Tuesday’s order, soldiers can detain anyone for up to a week with no warrant, seize property, and carry out searches without a court order. The military also threatened to shut down social media services used to incite violence, and said it would prosecute users that instigate disruptions.

Military announced to shut down social media that provoke violence and violate the law. — Prapapoom Eiamsom (@Prapapoom)May 20, 2014

The declaration cited a 1914 law that requires a royal proclamation for the imposition of martial law. But Thailand’s King Bhumibol Adulyjadej, who is revered by many Thais, has been noticeable silent in recent weeks, and it was unclear whether Gen. Prayuth had consulted him.

King Bhumibol has ruled Thailand since 1946, and his recent ill health has lent a sense of urgency to so-called “royalists” among the yellow shirts.

“The anti-government protesters are using their love for the king as a sort of smokescreen,” Chaloemtiarana said. “Everyone says they are doing it for the king, but why are they saying that? It’s not as if the current government is trying to topple the monarchy.”

Yellow shirts — made up mostly of urban, middle-class residents — have waged an awkward battle against democracy, proposing ambiguous “councils of experts” in place of the “one person, one vote” system (i.e. democracy) that sees populist leaders elected again and again since Thaksin first became prime minister in 2001.

Thailand prepares for civil war as Bangkok grows more menacing. Read more here.

The faction has much in common with America’s Tea Party: though both may have legitimate grievances about corruption, they are essentially made up of people who perceive their privilege being eroded. In America, the Tea Party clings to guns, religion, and a dogmatic claim to a centuries-old constitution as their own; in Thailand, the monarchy is a symbol that requires “defense” from uneducated, under-cultured hordes (who happen to be government supporters) living north of Bangkok.

Yellow shirts are backed by “very rich people that see that government is corrupt and making money that could be theirs,” says Chaloemtiarana.

— Sutharee Wannasiri (@SuthareeW)May 20, 2014

But King Bhumibol is the elephant in the room. Should he die, it would rob many of the yellow shirts of their reason for existence. His son, Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn, is believed to be closer to Thaksin and less attached the older elite.

For the time being, however, one group seems particularly pleased with the prospect of martial law in Thailand: banks.

A note from Citigroup analysts to investors titled “Thailand: Is martial law bad for the markets?” expressed cautious optimism about its economy.

“By minimizing violence, martial law could limit the impact on the critical tourism sector,” it rosily concluded.

Follow Samuel Oakford on Twitter: @samueloakford

Photo via Flickr