Just Because Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe Read the Wrong Speech Doesn't Mean He's Going Anywhere Soon

Despite exhibiting signs of senility, ruining the economy, and facing emboldened political opposition, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe could make his twilight years last a long, long time.

The latest episode highlighting Mugabe's shortcomings occurred Tuesday, when the 91-year-old delivered a speech to parliament that turned out to be the same address he gave three months before.

Most lawmakers listened respectfully as the strongman pontificated. Maybe they were afraid to speak up. Mugabe has notoriously used violence and intimidation to maintain his hold on power. He's been Zimbabwe's only head of state since independence from Britain 35 years ago.

Still, the opposition pounced, saying Mugabe should resign. "Speech-gate," as the blunder is being called in Zimbabwe, suggested the president was too old to run the country.

"With respect to our president, at the good ripe age of 91, he has seen better days," said Obert Gutu, a spokesman for opposition Movement for Democratic Change party, according to Voice of America. "I think it is now clear that he is no longer fit for purpose."

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Alexander Noyes, a political science doctoral candidate at Oxford University and Zimbabwe expert, said Gutu might be speaking too soon.

"It's definitely pretty embarrassing," Noyes told VICE News, referring to the twice-told speech. "It's certainly an indication of his advance age. But this guy has lasted a long time. The West has been talking about what comes next for a decade now. The rumor in Zimbabwe is that his mother lived to 104, and his aunt lived to 100."

Mugabe enjoys a tight grip on power, said Noyes. Most elites in the country belong to Mugabe's party, the Zimbabwe African National Union — Patriotic Front, and he still controls the military, police, and intelligence services.

"As long as he is there and pulling these strings, I think unfortunately it's going to be tough to bet against him," said Noyes. "He has this big machinery behind him."

Noyes acknowledged that Zimbabwe was facing untold problems under Mugabe, though.

Earlier this year, the president admitted that his policy of seizing land from rich white farmers and redistributing it to poor African workers in the eighties and nineties gutted the country's once-prosperous agricultural sector and delivered a body blow to the economy. It was an unusually frank declaration.

"I think the farms we gave to people are too large," he told the state-owned Herald newspaper in February. "They can't manage them."

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Zimbabwe has regained some of the ground it lost from the land reforms, but not enough.

In June, the country's central bank decommissioned the worthless Zimbabwean dollar, opting instead for citizens to use US dollars and other currencies. Last month, Mugabe floated plans to export skilled workers to neighboring countries to fight an unemployment rate that trade unions estimate is as high as 85 percent, theWashington Times reported.

The political scene in Zimbabwe also has changed in ways that suggest Mugabe's power is not absolute.

The country holds elections, and Mugabe even signed a power sharing agreement with the Movement for Democratic Change after he failed to achieve a majority in preliminary elections in 2009.

In 2013, Mugabe signed a new constitution that aimed to ease some of the country's draconian laws that curbed civil liberties, a key part of the power sharing agreement.

But the goodwill didn't last for long. When Mugabe won reelection that year in a decisive victory, he did so amid allegations of widespread voter fraud. His rivals might use episodes like the bungled speech to score points for the 2018 presidential election, Noyes said, but it would take more than a public relations flub to bring Mugabe down.

"Mugabe is still a master tactician," said Noyes. "That said, some of the pebbles might be coming off the façade."

Related: Family of Abducted Zimbabwean Activist Accuses Mugabe Regime of Disappearing a Man It Feared

Follow John Dyer on Twitter: @johnjdyerjr