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What you need to know about the special election in Pennsylvania

This race should not be competitive in the first place.

The Democrat won — probably — in a district that was gerrymandered to ensure that would never happen. As election officials count the remaining absentee and provisional ballots in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional district, there is one thing to remember: this race shouldn't have been competitive in the first place and Republicans should have easily won.

Instead, 33-year-old Democrat Conor Lamb looks likely to beat 60-year-old Republican State Rep. Rick Saccone in a district that Donald Trump won by 20 points just 16 months ago. At this writing, his margin is less than 1,000 votes, but if it holds it will be the latest in a string of victories for Democrats in the Trump era, part of a blue wave that progressive hope will wash away hundreds of Republicans and install Democrats in 2018 when 36 governorships, 435 House seats, and thousands state legislative seats are on the ballot in November.

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Here’s what you need to know:

Trump campaigned hard in this district

When Republicans lost the gubernatorial race in Virginia and the senate seat in Alabama late last year, Trump was adamant that those result were in no way a reflection on him and his presidency.

Trump may try to claim the same after this race but that would be spin. Trump twice campaigned in the district for Saccone, sent out barrages of tweets in support, had Donald Trump Jr. out on the campaign trail on Monday, and even coined a derisive nickname for the Democrat, dubbing him “Lamb the sham.”

Saccone also repeatedly embraced the president. “I was Trump before Trump was Trump,” he said from the beginning of the race. Saccone also tried to match Trump’s blend of culture war and “America First” populist economics with praise for the recently announced steel tariffs and saying this week that Democrats were motivated by “a hatred for God” and “a hatred for our country.”

It’s just one race and there are still seven months until the November elections but the Republican defeat here is at least partly a reflection on the president.

It's starting to look like a blue wave

Democrats, energized in opposition to the Trump administration, have overperformed in high-profile special elections in Virginia, Alabama, and now Pennsylvania’s 18th district. “This outcome is tantamount to a Democrat winning (or tying) a statewide race in Louisiana or Kansas or Montana, which also voted for Trump by 20 points,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver said on Twitter Monday night. Democrats have also flipped 36 state legislative seats from red to blue in the Trump era.

Still, Democrats may not want to order champagne quite yet.

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Saccone was a weak candidate

Saccone was a poor candidate, with weak fundraising and not a lot of charisma. “The fact is that the Saccone campaign was a joke,” Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund super PAC, said in a statement. Republican committees and Super PAC’s tried to make up the difference by dumping over $10 million into the race.

Lamb is a very conservative Democrat

Lamb is also far more conservative than many of the Democrats running across the country in 2018. Lamb is stridently aligned with labor unions but he is against most gun control, describes himself as personally against abortion, and supports fracking. The only high-profile national Democrat Lamb brought to the district was former Vice President Joe Biden rather than liberal icons like Sens. Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren.

Cecil Roberts, the head of the United Mine Workers which endorsed Lamb, praised the candidate as “a God-fearing, union-supporting, gun-owning, job-protecting, pension-defending, social-security-believing… sending-drug-dealers-to-jail Democrat.”

A recount is possible

Republicans may request a recount, which Pennsylvania law says they’re entitled to if the margin is less than 0.5 percent. Overseas ballots still have to be counted. And after all the campaigning and the tens of millions of dollars, the district may not even exist in November. Courts have ruled the congressional map is illegally gerrymandered in order to give Republicans an advantage and have ordered it to be redrawn and more representative.

Whoever wins the race will potentially have to run in a new district in just seven months.

Cover image: President Donald J. Trump with Rick Saccone speaks to supporters at the Atlantic Aviation Hanger on March 10, 2018 in Moon Township, Pennsylvania. The president made a visit in a bid to gain support for Republican congressional candidate Rick Saccone who is running for 18th Congressional District in a seat vacated by Tim Murphy. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)