Massive Bangkok Protests Highlight Existential Struggle for Control of Thailand

This article originally appeared on VICE UK

After weeks of relative calm, protests took over Bangkok once again this weekend, with tens of thousand of people marching through the city calling for the downfall of the government. Meanwhile, in the north of Thailand, the pro-government "red shirt" supporters are starting to beat the drums of war (quite literally, in some cases) and talk of marching on the capital to defend the incumbent regime. The ongoing standoff is the result of years of political upheaval in the country, ostensibly a battle between North and South, rich and poor. In reality, it is a much more complex, even existential, struggle for control of the Kingdom.

Despite talk of compromise and rumors of backroom deals, it's tough at this stage to see any kind of resolution to the crisis. The anti-government protesters in Bangkok – led by former Member of Parliament, Suthep Thaugsuban – want to replace the country’s democratically elected government and appoint a "people’s council" to enact political reforms that are thus far unspecified. In turn, the government and its supporters argue that protesters are denying the majority their democratic rights and have vowed repeatedly not to kowtow to the demands of what many in the country affectionately (and some not-so affectionately) refer to as "the mob".

'This is Like Syria:' Bangkok remains in violent crisis. Read more here

Above it all (while at the same time being very much in the middle of it all) are the Royal Thai Army – arguably the most powerful institution in the country at present. In a recent interview, General Prayuth, head of the Army, warned of civil war if Thailand continues on its path. “If there's any further loss of life, the country will definitely collapse," said Prayuth, "and there won’t be any winners or losers.”

So far, the anti-government movement – backed by much of the capital's business community, as well as establishment figures in Thailand’s elite circles – has failed to achieve much of what it set out to do. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra remains in power and though her brother and former PM Thaksin remains in self-imposed exile, there are few signs his influence has been in any way curtailed.

Indeed, prior to this weekend's mass rally, momentum on the streets for the anti-government movement appeared to be waning following the end of the so-called "Bangkok Shutdown," a result, in part, of dwindling numbers. However, developments in Thailand’s courts now promise fresh hope for those opposing the government. Last week, the Constitutional Court ruled to invalidate February's general election, as the vote wasn't held on a single day – something that was largely a result of anti-government gangs blocking polling stations. A new election will be held but scenes similar to the last one are likely to recur.

More imminently worrying for the government and its supporters is this week's National Anti Corruption Committee (NACC). The Prime Minister must attend to face charges that she neglected to act on alleged irregularities in a controversial government-led "rice scheme" that has been dogged by accusations of corruption and mismanagement.

Yingluck recently questioned the impartiality of the committee, but if it does find her guilty – which some believe is likely – she will be suspended from duty and face an impeachment trial in the senate. Her party, Pheau Thai, would be free to choose another Prime Minister, but it would be seen as a major victory for the anti-government movement. Fears would then turn to the red shirts' response.

Recently, under new, more hardline leadership, the red shirts have been carrying out a number of rallies across the country with another scheduled for this weekend, possibly to be held in Bangkok. The new leader – former Pheau Thai party MP, Jatuporn Prompan – said in a recent interview that their tactics would be “peaceful” but added that “the next battle will be big”. The last time the two sides confronted each other in any significant numbers was at an intersection just north of Bangkok. It led to a firefight that lasted several hours and involved small explosives and assault rifles. If they hold their rally next week in the capital, renewed clashes are likely.

For now, Jatuporn and the red shirts are sounding confident: "In 2006, they used a military coup. In 2007 and 2008, they used independent organizations like the constitutional court. Now they used a people's revolution led by Suthep but it did not succeed.” However, if Yingluck is found guilty this week by the NACC, and no compromise or agreement can be found, the government will definitely be weakened and tensions will rise.

In a telling and rather disheartening video recorded earlier this week, red shirt protesters were seen beating a Buddhist Monk who they accused of supporting the anti-government protest. They tugged at his orange robes and punched him repeatedly at a gathering not far from Bangkok. Pictures of the attack, which made the front pages of many of the country's newspapers, were a vivid reminder of where the vitriol spouted from leaders on both sides is leading the country.

Further court rulings are inevitable, rival rallies will take place and both sides will be guilty of more fear-mongering hate speech but where this will lead Thailand is anybody's guess. The country has weathered plenty of upheavals before (although a big part of the problem is that it has never truly resolved them) and may still retain its "Teflon Thailand" reputation. Yet, if the current tensions fail to cool, the fear of a permanent split still lingers in the minds of Thais of all political stripes.

Follow George Henton on Twitter @georgehenton