North Korea May Not Be About To Freak Out

There are times when the geopolitical situation in Asia seems almost jealous of the attention being lavished on the situation in Crimea. The United States and South Korea are in the middle of massive joint-military exercises. North Korea has been firing off the occasional Scud missile. China has apparently decided that blockading Filipino troops on a derelict ship is key to their global domination strategy. Japan is restructuring its military to contend with China or either half of Korea, as circumstances dictate.

Yet, try as these nations might, the world seems steadfast in focusing its attention on Crimea and whether or not war will break out in, over, or near Ukraine. It’s enough to make any respectable Asian saber-rattler weep with frustration. North Korea has even chipped in to get Asia back in the spotlight by hosting a Globe Theatre production of Hamlet.

But things could quickly change. South Korea’s recent defense reforms allow its military to strike preemptively if it believes a North Korean attack is imminent. Previously, South Korean commanders were only authorized to respond to local provocations after the fact. South Korea's military responses could now be larger and more comprehensive, striking the source of imminent missile launches within North Korea before they are fired.

South Korea recognizes that such a preemptive strike would lead to the country being blamed for starting a war, so the reform is being integrated as a collective defense measure. The point is to present an aggressive front that will hopefully diminish North Korea's penchant for provoking its neighbors.

The practical effect of the reform may simply be to let North Korea know that pushing back too hard against South Korea to get concessions from them (or the US) might come with greater risks, according to Anthony Cordesman, a national-security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Cordesman told VICE News that South Korea's statement is “made with considerable caution and implemented with equal caution.” Meaning that, hopefully, South Korea isn't trying to stir up a pot of trouble with this announcement.

Meanwhile, China has issued a statement telling all and sundry that it will absolutely not put up with anyone starting up a war on the Korean peninsula. Although not explicit, the statement implied that China won’t back the North if it starts a war, but will come in on the North Korean side if South Korea jumps first. China also advocated the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, to obviate the need for it getting involved at all.

North Korea's response to the annual joint US and South Korean military exercises has been relatively subdued, and it's possible that the country will continue to refrain from irritating its neighbors by undertaking any exceptionally dramatic moves, shows of force, or rattling of sabers.

Granted, the joint military exercises won't end until mid-April, and North Korea may just be biding its time, waiting for the current crisis in Crimea to abate and clear the stage of competitors for the attention of the diplomatic and foreign policy community. However, with Kim Jong-un's hold on internal politics reconfirmed by recent "elections," there is a chance that this season we may spared the Annual Losing of the Shit.

Follow Ryan Faith on Twitter: @Operation_Ryan

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