World War III Has Been Postponed Indefinitely

Thank God it’s Friday. If the cable-news talking heads had to hyperventilate for one more day about a World War III that’s not going to happen — unless Ukraine decides they'd like to play the Texans in a large-scale re-enactment of the Alamo — they would probably pass out and potentially die, doing irreparable harm to the hairspray industry.

Vladimir Putin certainly never wanted a war. He wanted an order of Crimea for delivery, and that delivery should arrive in a week or so. Granted, there are currently reports that Russian troops are storming an airbase in Ukraine, and while that's deeply rude, it's by no means the beginning of WWIII. And if Putin is averse to war, Barack Obama is positively allergic to the idea, as though he has qualms about bringing civilization to an end.

The West seems determined to talk about this conflict in terms of “escalation” and “de-escalation," “turning up the heat,” and a lot of other buzz phrases that are a poor fit for facts on the ground. Since the US doesn’t want to increase tensions, it has avoided doing anything with its military. Well, strictly speaking, it's done three things.

First, the US has not cancelled a previously scheduled exercise that involved moving the USS Truxtun, an Arleigh Burke-class destroyer, into the Black Sea. No matter how old and busted the Russian Black Sea fleet may be, the poor Truxtun, stuck out there all by its lonesome, would have an incredibly short lifespan if hostilities broke out.

The second US “military response” was a dramatic 250 percent increase in the number of US aircraft deployed in the Baltics! Just kidding, it’s not dramatic at all. It was actually a 250 percent increase from the four F-15C combat aircraft stationed in Lithuania as part of a normal NATO air defense rotation; the US is simply sending six more F-15C (along with a refueling aircraft) to the airbase. The “C” model of the F-15 is an air superiority fighter, and while it's great at shooting down other planes, it wouldn’t be much use against ground targets.

The USS Truxtun leaves Greece yesterday, headed for the Black Sea.

The third military response is really just an expansion of a previously scheduled training exercise with the Polish Air Force. Originally, the exercise was going to involve only transport aircraft, but it has been expanded to include 12 F-16 multirole fighters.

These deployments are intended to let the easternmost members of NATO know that the alliance will be there if Russian becomes even grabbier and goes after any of them. It's a way to display military force without shooting; deployments let the other guy know what kind of options are still on the table.

Still, a grand total of 18 combat aircraft and a destroyer is not exactly going to make the Kremlin shake. And regardless of what the US deployments mean diplomatically, on a military level, they mean that there will be no wider war for the US. No military means no war. That’s the rule.

However, there is one wrinkle in this. Ukrainian forces were put on alert a while back, and a week ago Ukraine started mobilizing its reserves. Those forces won’t be ready for a while yet because it takes a fair amount of time to turn inactive civilian reserves into even minimally competent fighting units. Procuring simple things like uniforms, boots, and rifles on that scale can be a major logistical chore. More complex things, like organizing people into units, setting up command structures, equipping soldiers with communications gear, is even more difficult. So really, the reserves are filling a symbolic role and reminding Russia that while major invasion would be successful, it would also be costly.

The regular Ukrainian forces are a different matter. For starters, they’re already in the military, so there is no time needed to … get them in the military. Some units are now probably at or close to full readiness. And the Ukrainian military is actually pretty competent; they may not have the most modern equipment, but they are good enough and professional enough to not be written off.

Russia has deployed some 30,000 troops in Crimea, and they look to be some of Russia’s tougher, better equipped, and better-organized forces. For the Ukrainians, getting substantial forces into Crimea in the face of armed resistance would be an enormous pain. Only two highways lead in, and much of the terrain in the land connecting Crimea to the rest of Ukraine is swampy and difficult to traverse. Russian forces would do their best to hold on to those key choke points.

Once into Crimea, it's a different story. The region is mostly flat. And mostly flat is mostly awesome for mostly mechanized forces. Once Ukrainian forces were able to gain access to Crimea, and assuming a reasonable level of competence on both sides, the main body of the Ukrainian military would be able to overwhelm the Russian forces. Ukrainian forces would probably pay a fairly heavy toll to defeat the Russians, but they could prevail.

Which brings us to the Russian military exercises that just wrapped up. The Russians just held “readiness exercises” involving about 150,000 troops right next to Ukraine. If Ukrainian forces attacked Russian forces in Crimea, those 150,000 Russians would be over the border in a hot second to go rescue their compatriots.

Compared to the Russian armed forces, the Ukrainian military is small. In the event of a knock-down, drag-out fight, Russia would completely overwhelm them. Russian occupation of Ukraine could get ugly, with the distinct possibility of a robust Ukrainian insurgency, but the ultimate result wouldn't be in doubt.

Despite this, there’s a very slim chance Ukraine might just be crazy enough to attempt to force Russia out anyways. Doing so would force Russia’s hand, and in the face of a massive Russian force, poised to roll into Ukraine, it might force the West as a whole — and the US and NATO in particular — to help defend Ukraine. The overall risk level of a Ukrainian strategy centered around trying to draw in Europe by getting your army pounded flat would be, in technical terms, “completely insane."

You should never say “never” about the prospect of an apocalyptic war breaking out. But there’s probably no reason to change your weekend plans.