There’s No Way Assad Can’t Win Syria’s Next Election

This week marks the third anniversary of the peaceful Syrian uprising, which has since turned into a brutal crackdown on the country by President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. The grim situation has been complicated by a fractious rebellion and an influx of radical jihadists, and has resulted in a devastating humanitarian disaster.

Assad is now looking forward to another seven years in power, even though his current term expires on July 17. New laws approved by the Syrian parliament on Thursday prepared the ground for the presidential vote. The legislation makes Assad’s re-election extremely likely, mostly because it disqualifies most of his potential challengers from running. The elections are also expected to disrupt the peace talk process aiming to stop fighting in Syria that has killed over 146,000 people.

The new election rules revised residency requirements for candidates, a move that would rule out any exiled members of the opposition. The leaders of the Syrian National Coalition, backed by the West, are based outside Syria.

“Section 30 of the draft law stipulates that candidates for the office of president of the republic must… have maintained continuous, permanent residence in the Syrian Arab Republic for a period of no less than 10 years at the time of seeking nomination,” reported state news agency SANA.

The laws also require that candidates are: at least 40 years old, only hold Syrian citizenship, is a child of Syrian citizens, is married only to a Syrian citizen, and is free of criminal convictions.

Joshua Landis, Director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma and blogger, told VICE News that Assad will certainly win the upcoming vote.

“These elections are a joke, of course, but he clearly feels compelled to stage manage them,” Landis said. “Syrians can expect to have Assad elected as their president for the next seven years.”

Assad came to power in 2000 following the death of his father, Hafez al Assad. He was re-elected in 2007 with 97.6 percent of the vote.

More than nine million people have been displaced in the country in the last three years according to the UN, making this one of the worst refugee crises in history.

In a report released earlier this month, the UN said all sides of the conflict bear responsibility for war crimes, including massacres, torture, rapes, denial of humanitarian aid, food, and use of child soldiers. Without naming Assad personally, UN Chair of the Commission Paulo Pinheiro said that the Syrian regime must be held responsible, including “people in the high echelons in the government.”

“The absolute impunity that pervades the conflict, now entering its fourth year, is utterly unacceptable,” Pinheiro said in a statement. “The leadership of each party must be held responsible for the violations of its members, and must take action to curb these violations.”

The Geneva II peace talks held in January and February were supported by Russia and the US, but the negotiations led nowhere. In fact, the talks coincided with an escalation of violence in Syria, according to human rights groups and activists on the ground.

These elections are also unlikely to help find a diplomatic solution to Syria’s crisis. Lakhdar Brahimi, UN and Arab League envoy for Syria, said the proposed vote may well detail the peace process further.

“If there is an election, then my suspicion is that the opposition… will probably not be interested in talking to the government,” Brahimi, who was the chief mediator in the Geneva talks, told reporters in New York on Thursday.

A Syrian official dismissed Brahimi’s comment, calling the elections an internal issue.

“It’s not Brahimi’s mission to discuss sovereign issues related to the Syrian domestic affair,” Information Minister Omran al Zoubi told Syrian TV on Friday. Al Zoubi said Brahimi should respect his role as a mediator and be “fair and neutral.”

In a Thursday interview with Xinhua news agency, Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad described Assad as the “real guarantee for the security and stability of Syria.”

But it is unclear how much stability these elections can conjure up or if it is indeed possible to hold a fair ballot in a war-ravaged country.

“There is no appetite for elections — there are too many displaced people,” Rami Jarrah, a Syrian activist, told VICE News.

According to the new law, the elections must take place between 60 and 90 days before Assad’s term ends on July 17, which means elections will have to be completed within the next two months.

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