Putin’s Vote Delay Is a Meaningless Overture for Ukraine’s Rebels

Armed rebels controlling large pockets of eastern Ukraine say they will ignore a request from Vladimir Putin to postpone a referendum scheduled for May 11.

On Wednesday afternoon after a Moscow meeting with Swiss President and current Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe chief Didier Burkhalter the Russian president called on the rebels leaders to: "Postpone the referendums planned for May 11 to create the necessary conditions for dialogue."

Putin also promised to withdraw the 40,000 Russian troops, which according to NATO intelligence have been performing unprecedented "military exercises" in the regions surrounding Ukraine's border.

But Putin’s gestures appear to be little more than a meaningless overture, or at least the latest well-timed Russian twist-and-turn in a protracted game of cat-and-mouse between East and West over Ukraine.

The rebels' leaders say the referendum will go ahead — come what may.

"If we don't have a referendum on the 11th then we will lose the trust of the people," said a spokesman for the fledgling Donetsk People's Republic at a packed press conference this morning.

"The referendum is not just a referendum. For the people of the southeast and Donbas it is a symbol of victory over fascism which can be compared to placing the flag of the great Soviet army on top of the Reichstag," he added.

Watch all of VICE News' dispatches, Russian Roulette: The Invasion of Ukraine here.

Kiev’s new government and its western allies have accused Moscow of orchestrating the unrest that has rocked eastern Ukraine. With the Kremlin constantly threatening to "intervene" if Russian speakers in the country's east were under threat, many feared that an invasion was imminent.

Seizures of state administration and security buildings in the Donbas region by armed pro-Russia rebels — which began in earnest last month — followed closely on the heels of a Putin-backed putsch that resulted in the March annexation of Crimea by Russia. The Kremlin vigorously denied the allegations of interference initially, before admitting last week that they had "lost control" of the rebels in the east.

But many analysts believe this is a case of chaos by design.

"Putin has always had a plan A and a plan B," says Moscow-based analyst Aleksandr Morozov. “The current situation may leave eastern Ukraine beyond Russia's full control but the established rebel presence leaves the Kremlin with "powerful tools to put pressure on Kiev," he adds.

Certainly the smoldering barricades, perpetual flag swapping, and mounting body count suggest the damage is already done. More than 50 people have died in the simmering tensions over the last week, including 42 pro-Russia activists who were trapped inside a burning building during clashes with pro-Ukraine demonstrations, in what is already being dubbed the "Odessa massacre."

The Kiev-backed counter-terrorism operation in eastern Ukraine, which has brought fighting into civilian areas and resulted in around a dozen deaths, has only intensified the already deep divide within the country.

In Slovyansk, the anger on the streets is palpable.

"Once I was proud to be Ukrainian, but now how can I be? The government is murdering its own people, peaceful people. How are we meant to feel about this? Our city is surrounded by armed men. It is clear we are not wanted as part of this country anymore," Slovyansk local Irina, 42, told VICE News.

‘We Cannot Wait Any Longer’: Ukraine’s Rebels Are Angry Over Putin's Referendum Delay. Read more here.

Her sentiments were echoed by countless others locals milling around the rebel-controlled city today. "We are called separatists, terrorists, but it is these fascists that come here with their tanks and guns to kill us. All we want is a vote on our future. Tell me who is not peaceful?" Valentina, a local housewife, said while angrily waving her hand. "How can we feel we have a place in this country?”

For its part, the government in Kiev has made clear that it will not negotiate with what it views as "terrorists" operating eastern Ukraine. Reacting to Putin's request for a referendum postponement, Ukraine’s interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk called it "hot air," and said that the Ukrainian army would continue its bid to dislodge the rebels from the country's east.

Ukraine’s interim Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk compared Russia’s actions in Crimea to Germany’s annexation of Sudentenland in the lead up to World War II.

At present it remains unclear exactly how a vote can be practically organized. The rebels' leaders have claimed that "millions of ballot papers" have been prepared. But with just four days to go until the referendum, evidence of appropriate preparation is thin on the ground. The pockets controlled by the rebels are geographically fragmented, and their leaders are politically divided.

Yet in practice, as Putin's political overtures demonstrate, the result of the potential vote now matters little. The Kremlin's goal has already been hammered home. Whatever the outcome of May 11th, Ukraine is already de facto divided.

Follow Harriet Salem on Twitter: @HarrietSalem