The U.K. didn't want these Brexit scenarios to go public

A leaked government analysis shows what Brexit will do to Britain’s economy, and it’s not going to be good, no matter what it ends up looking like.

The secret economic analysis, which was intended only for the eyes of Cabinet ministers but was leaked to BuzzFeed Tuesday, modeled three of the most plausible Brexit scenarios and found that each of them would leave Britain economically worse off. Almost every sector of the economy would be hurt in each scenario, with financial services, clothing, manufacturing, and retailing among the hardest hit.

Britain’s future relationship with the European Union after it leaves is the subject of ongoing negotiations with the bloc, with options ranging from a so-called “soft Brexit” ­– in which Britain would have continued access to the single market through membership of the European Economic Area, like Norway – to no deal at all.

The latter outcome, in which the U.K. would be forced to revert to World Trade Organization rules, would be the most damaging economically, shrinking the country’s forecast growth by 8 percent over a 15-year period, according to the analysis.

If a free trade agreement were reached with the EU, economic growth would still fall by 5 percent over the next 15 years, and even if Britain retained access to the single market, it would be 2 percent lower than without Brexit, according to the modeling.

The projections in the document ­– a rare insight into how the government sees the country’s prospects after leaving the EU – will strengthen the argument of those within government seeking a “soft Brexit.” British Prime Minister Theresa May has said she favors a bespoke arrangement combining elements of a free trade agreement and a single-market deal – a contingency that wasn’t modeled in the analysis.

The analysis has angered many in the “Remain” camp who believe Brexit will hurt Britain economically, and that voters were misled ahead of the 2016 referendum into believing that leaving the EU would leave them better off. The Brexit transition period is planned for after March 2019.

“Almost every community, region and sector of the economy included in the analysis would be negatively impacted,” Eloise Todd, chief executive of anti-Brexit group Best for Britain, told the Guardian.

“It is a colossal act of economic self harm, written down clearly, in black and white. We are reading about an economy facing the abyss.”

The modelling may actually give an overly rosy view of Britain’s prospects as it assumed that the U.K. would reach a trade deal with the U.S. to help offset the economic pain of Brexit, estimating it would benefit Britain’s GDP by about 0.2 percent. But such a deal is by no means assured.

While Buzzfeed reported on the contents of the analysis, it did not publish the document itself, and there were growing calls from lawmakers Tuesday for ministers to publicly release the analysis. The government says it won’t discuss its projections so as not to undermine its negotiating position with the EU. But a source for the Department for Exiting the European Union told BuzzFeed the reason the findings weren’t being made public was “because it's embarrassing.”

A recent ICM poll found nearly half of Britons – 47 percent – would support a second referendum before the government approved the final Brexit deal, while 34 percent were against reopening the decision.