Trump has more than a 50 percent chance of being impeached, bookmakers say

Among several rocky weeks already in Donald Trump’s short time in office, this has been a particularly bad one. From sharing classified information with Russia, to allegedly trying to coerce the director of the FBI to drop an investigation, to issuing threatening tweets, the U.S. president has faced a near-constant stream of criticism. Now we’re seeing lawmakers openly talk about impeachment, and political punters are voting with their wallets, as bookmakers reported Wednesday that Trump is odds-on to depart the White House under a cloud of controversy during his first term.

Back in November, when Trump surprised the world by beating Hillary Clinton, U.K. bookmaker Ladbrokes gave odds of 3-1 (a 25 percent chance) that Trump would leave office via impeachment or resignation during his first term. Five months and many controversies later, punters have shifted the odds to just 4-5 (or a 55.56 percent chance), which is odds-on.

“Punters here in Blighty quite simply do not trust Trump as far as they could throw him and are willing to stake hefty amounts of money on him failing,” Jessica Bridge, of Ladbrokes, told VICE News. “Political punters are wondering how many more scandals can Trump overcome, and despite the short price on offer, money has poured in for the president to be impeached, leaving us with little option but to cut the odds.” Ladbrokes says it has taken over $60,000 worth of bets on various Trump specials to date.

The Washington Post reported Monday that Trump shared classified information with Russian officials in the Oval Office. On Tuesday, the New York Times reported on a leaked memo written by recently fired FBI director James Comey that claimed Trump asked the intelligence chief to stop an investigation into then–national security adviser Michael Flynn.

Following Tuesday’s revelations, online betting site BetVictor told VICE News that it saw large amounts of money being placed on Donald Trump’s presidency to end in 2017 at odds of 3-1. “We were forced to cut him to 2-1 and support has continued this morning and Trump is now 7-4 to leave office this year, after the latest in a litany of scandals to have rocked the White House during his short administration.” The online bookmaker says it expects the odds to shorten further in the next 48 hours or so.

Irish bookmaker Paddy Power says odds are now 2-1 that Trump will be impeached before the end of his first term, with treason (10-3) the most likely reason, followed by tax evasion (4-1), perjury (7-1) and bribery (10-1).

If you’re wondering if betting on the impeachment of a U.S. president is normal, Bridges points out: “We weren’t even offering any markets on Obama resigning or being impeached. It was never an issue, and no punters ever asked to place that sort of bet.”

Despite all the controversies, Trump is still, across the board, the big favorite to win the 2020 election, with Paddy Power giving him a 2-1 chance, ahead of Mike Pence (15-2), Elizabeth Warren (11-1), and Michelle Obama (14-1). Kim Kardashian is an outsider at 275-1 while Kevin Spacey, who plays President Frank Underwood in the Netflix hit “House of Cards,” is at 200-1.

As well as the more serious bets on offer, bookmakers are also offering a selection of the Trump-related novelty bets that punters can spend their money on. Here’s a selection:

  • Trump and Putin to receive a joint Nobel Peace Prize — 25-1
  • Trump to be caught visiting sex workers at the Moscow Ritz — 100-1
  • Trump to be the next James Bond — 1000-1
  • Trump will marry for a fourth time as president — 16-1
  • Melania Trump to be deported in 2017 — 100-1

Joe LoCascio contributed to this report. 


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