Election 2016

A look inside the data

Inside today’s turnout projections
from VoteCastr

Live Election Day turnout results with VICE News and VoteCastr

We updated this story throughout the day from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. ET. The first data came in at 9:45. Scroll down for the latest data. 

Background on the VoteCastr data

For past elections, media organizations agreed to hold back any Election Day voting data because they thought the information trickling in throughout the day would unduly affect voters.

Through a partnership with the data firm VoteCastr and Slate, VICE News broke that rule today, and for the first time brought you voting-turnout data from battleground states in real time. VoteCastr’s models and methods are based on the same techniques used by presidential campaigns. Its founders were members of the campaign teams for Barack Obama and George W. Bush.

The data we tracked throughout the day were likely similar to what the Trump and Clinton campaign war rooms were seeing. It was an inside look into the electoral process, and at times it was messy.

Clinton holds lead in Florida in latest VoteCastr projection update

Updated: 6:07 p.m. ET

Florida:

  • 93.9 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 48 percent
  • Trump: 45 percent

Colorado:

  • 88.3 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 46 percent
  • Trump: 43 percent

Iowa:

  • 78.5 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 45 percent
  • Trump: 46 percent

Wisconsin:

  • 77.8 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 48 percent
  • Trump: 43 percent

Nevada:

  • 79.8 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 46 percent
  • Trump: 45 percent

Ohio:

  • 88.4 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 45 percent
  • Trump: 46 percent

Pennsylvania:

  • 81.6 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 48 percent
  • Trump: 45 percent

New Hampshire:

  • 84.3 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 47 percent
  • Trump: 43 percent

What it means: The VoteCastr data indicates that Hillary Clinton’s tight lead among expected voters in swing states held steady throughout the day. She’s leading by 3 percent in Florida, Colorado, and Pennsylvania, and she has a one-point lead in Nevada.

Trump, however, has caught up to her in Ohio, where VoteCastr now gives him a one-point advantage.

— Noah Kulwin

Trump gains in Ohio in latest VoteCastr update

Updated: 3:48 p.m. ET 

Florida

  • 83.9 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 48 percent
  • Trump: 45 percent

Colorado:

  • 80.3 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 46 percent
  • Trump: 43 percent

Iowa:

  • 66.5 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 45 percent
  • Trump: 46 percent

Wisconsin:

  • 62 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 48 percent
  • Trump: 43 percent

Nevada:

  • 68.8 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 46 percent
  • Trump: 45 percent

Ohio:

  • 73.7 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 45 percent
  • Trump: 46 percent

Pennsylvania

  • 63.2 percent of expected total voters
  • Hillary: 48 percent
  • Trump: 45 percent

What it means: VoteCastr’s latest projections show that the race has tightened in multiple swing states. In both Ohio and Iowa, Trump has a narrow lead. In Florida, Nevada, Colorado, and Pennsylvania, Clinton maintains a lead, but it has narrowed from four points to three points.

Clinton holds an estimated five-point advantage in Wisconsin, with 62 percent of expected voters observed thus far.

— Noah Kulwin

Wisconsin gives healthy lead to Clinton in VoteCastr’s model

Updated: 2:20 p.m. ET

Florida

  • 74.9 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 49 percent
  • Trump: 45 percent

Colorado:

  • 72.2 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 47 percent
  • Trump: 42 percent

Iowa:

  • 55.9 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 45 percent
  • Trump: 46 percent

Wisconsin:

  • 47.9 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 49 percent
  • Trump: 43 percent

Nevada:

  • 58.7 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 47 percent
  • Trump: 44 percent

Ohio:

  • 59.8 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 46 percent
  • Trump: 45 percent

Pennsylvania

  • 45.9 percent of expected total voters
  • Hillary: 48 percent
  • Trump: 44 percent

What it means: More than half of expected voters have already cast their ballots for president, and Hillary Clinton is on track to win key swing states barring a huge surge of Trump voters late in the day, according to VoteCastr’s model.

With 74.9 percent of expected votes cast in Florida, VoteCastr’s model predicts that Clinton has a four-point lead in the famously divided state. President Obama won the state in 2012 by less than 1 percent, and Al Gore lost the state by less than 1,000 votes.

But if these turnout patterns hold, Clinton is set for an enormous victory in the state, which would all but clinch her path to the presidency.

In Colorado, VoteCastr projects that 72.2 percent of total voters have cast their ballots, and its model has Clinton ahead by five points. Clinton’s campaign was so confident of victory there that it stopped airing television ads for much of the general election, though the state saw a late surge in television ad buys from the Democratic presidential candidate.

Donald Trump did see one positive, however. VoteCastr’s tracking model has him up one point in the swing state of Iowa. Trump will need to perform well across Rust Belt states like Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania to have a chance at victory tonight. But polls in recent weeks have shown Trump up in Iowa by more than one point, so if these turnout patterns hold, VoteCastr’s model would suggest an underwhelming performance in the Hawkeye state for Trump.

VoteCastr’s Ken Strasma cautions that we are only at the midway point and there’s still a lot of game to play. There are lots of “urban myths,” he said, about whether Democrats or Republicans vote earlier in the day. It’s possible there could be surges of Clinton or Trump voters later on, and we will be giving you those numbers as soon as they come in.

— Alex Thompson

Hillary Clinton is up in swing-state counties with big Latino populations

Updated: 12:01 p.m. ET 

Florida: Miami-Dade County

  • Clinton: 58.5 percent
  • Trump: 35.5 percent

Colorado: Costilla County

  • Clinton: 50 percent
  • Trump: 35.5 percent

Nevada: Clark County

  • Clinton: 49.3 percent
  • Trump: 42.8 percent

What it means: Swing states with counties that have a large registered Latino voter base are showing significant leads for Clinton, which could prove to be the deciding factor today.

27 million Hispanics are eligible to vote in this year’s election, a 26 percent increase from 2012.

— Noah Kulwin

The latest VoteCastr data from six swing states

Updated: 11:36 a.m. E.T. 

What it means: VoteCastr’s model is designed in part to project turnout totals for every state, and with the prevalence of early voting, they estimate that some battlegrounds already have nearly half of the vote in.

When the dust settles, more than 30 percent of voters are expected to have cast their ballots early this year, and VoteCastr has already analyzed the numbers in several battleground states, including Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and Iowa.

In Nevada, VoteCastr’s model estimates that 46.2 percent of votes have already been cast, and among those votes, Clinton holds a narrow, 1.5 percent lead. Iowa’s heavily white population and polling led many observers to predict that Trump would carry the state, but VoteCastr’s model shows Clinton taking a surprisingly strong lead in the early vote.

As for Florida, Trump likely needs its 29 electoral votes to secure his path to the presidency. With nearly half of the projected vote already in, the state is still very much up in the air. VoteCastr’s data estimates that Trump is currently behind by three points in the hotly contested state.

— Alex Thompson 

Colorado:

  • 59.8 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 46.3
  • Trump: 43.6

Iowa:

  • 33.3 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 48.5  
  • Trump: 43.5

Wisconsin:

  • 24.7 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 52.7
  • Trump: 40.3

Nevada:

  • 46.2 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 46.7
  • Trump: 45.2

Ohio:

  • 22.7 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 47.9
  • Trump: 43.9

Florida:

  • 52.4 percent of expected total voters
  • Clinton: 48.6
  • Trump: 45.2

Early voting data from Colorado

The data:

  • Clinton: 46 percent
  • Trump: 44 percent

What it means: Colorado allows voters to mail in their ballots early, which gives us some early voting data to analyze. Considering the 1.53 million total votes thus far, the VoteCastr model projects that Clinton is leading Trump 46 percent to 44 percent.

— Noah Kulwin

 

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