We updated this story throughout the day from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. ET. The first data came in at 9:45. Scroll down for the latest data.For past elections, media organizations agreed to hold back any Election Day voting data because they thought the information trickling in throughout the day would unduly affect voters.Through a partnership with the data firm VoteCastr and Slate, VICE News broke that rule today, and for the first time brought you voting-turnout data from battleground states in real time. VoteCastr’s models and methods are based on the same techniques used by presidential campaigns. Its founders were members of the campaign teams for Barack Obama and George W. Bush.The data we tracked throughout the day were likely similar to what the Trump and Clinton campaign war rooms were seeing. It was an inside look into the electoral process, and at times it was messy.Updated: 6:07 p.m. ETFlorida:Updated: 3:48 p.m. ETFloridaUpdated: 2:20 p.m. ETFloridaNevada:VoteCastr’s Ken Strasma cautions that we are only at the midway point and there’s still a lot of game to play. There are lots of “urban myths,” he said, about whether Democrats or Republicans vote earlier in the day. It’s possible there could be surges of Clinton or Trump voters later on, and we will be giving you those numbers as soon as they come in.— Alex ThompsonUpdated: 12:01 p.m. ETFlorida: Miami-Dade CountyUpdated: 11:36 a.m. E.T.What it means: VoteCastr’s model is designed in part to project turnout totals for every state, and with the prevalence of early voting, they estimate that some battlegrounds already have nearly half of the vote in.When the dust settles, more than 30 percent of voters are expected to have cast their ballots early this year, and VoteCastr has already analyzed the numbers in several battleground states, including Ohio, Nevada, Florida, and Iowa.In Nevada, VoteCastr’s model estimates that 46.2 percent of votes have already been cast, and among those votes, Clinton holds a narrow, 1.5 percent lead. Iowa’s heavily white population and polling led many observers to predict that Trump would carry the state, but VoteCastr’s model shows Clinton taking a surprisingly strong lead in the early vote.As for Florida, Trump likely needs its 29 electoral votes to secure his path to the presidency. With nearly half of the projected vote already in, the state is still very much up in the air. VoteCastr’s data estimates that Trump is currently behind by three points in the hotly contested state.— Alex ThompsonColorado:The data:
Background on the VoteCastr data
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Clinton holds lead in Florida in latest VoteCastr projection update
- 93.9 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 48 percent
- Trump: 45 percent
- 88.3 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 46 percent
- Trump: 43 percent
- 78.5 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 45 percent
- Trump: 46 percent
- 77.8 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 48 percent
- Trump: 43 percent
- 79.8 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 46 percent
- Trump: 45 percent
- 88.4 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 45 percent
- Trump: 46 percent
- 81.6 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 48 percent
- Trump: 45 percent
- 84.3 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 47 percent
- Trump: 43 percent
Trump gains in Ohio in latest VoteCastr update
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- 83.9 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 48 percent
- Trump: 45 percent
- 80.3 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 46 percent
- Trump: 43 percent
- 66.5 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 45 percent
- Trump: 46 percent
- 62 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 48 percent
- Trump: 43 percent
- 68.8 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 46 percent
- Trump: 45 percent
- 73.7 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 45 percent
- Trump: 46 percent
- 63.2 percent of expected total voters
- Hillary: 48 percent
- Trump: 45 percent
Wisconsin gives healthy lead to Clinton in VoteCastr’s model
- 74.9 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 49 percent
- Trump: 45 percent
- 72.2 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 47 percent
- Trump: 42 percent
- 55.9 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 45 percent
- Trump: 46 percent
- 47.9 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 49 percent
- Trump: 43 percent
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- 58.7 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 47 percent
- Trump: 44 percent
- 59.8 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 46 percent
- Trump: 45 percent
- 45.9 percent of expected total voters
- Hillary: 48 percent
- Trump: 44 percent
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Hillary Clinton is up in swing-state counties with big Latino populations
- Clinton: 58.5 percent
- Trump: 35.5 percent
- Clinton: 50 percent
- Trump: 35.5 percent
- Clinton: 49.3 percent
- Trump: 42.8 percent
The latest VoteCastr data from six swing states
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- 59.8 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 46.3
- Trump: 43.6
- 33.3 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 48.5
- Trump: 43.5
- 24.7 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 52.7
- Trump: 40.3
- 46.2 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 46.7
- Trump: 45.2
- 22.7 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 47.9
- Trump: 43.9
- 52.4 percent of expected total voters
- Clinton: 48.6
- Trump: 45.2
Early voting data from Colorado
- Clinton: 46 percent
- Trump: 44 percent